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Yen Gains on CPI Data, Aussie and NZ Dollars in Correction Mode

Yen Gains on CPI Data, Aussie and NZ Dollars in Correction Mode

2014-05-30 05:26:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Australian, New Zealand Dollars Rise But Gains Continue to Look Corrective
  • Japanese Yen Rallies as CPI Data Dents BOJ Stimulus Bets, Sinks Nikkei 225
  • US Dollar May Renew Advance on Personal Income & Spending, UofM Data

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rebounding after sliding to a three-month low against its US namesake yesterday. We see the bounce as corrective and remain short NZDUSD. The Australian Dollar likewise moved higher, continuing to build on yesterday’s recovery. Here too, near-term upside momentum seems to be playing out in the context of a larger move downward and we continue to hold short AUDUSD.

The Japanese Yen rallied after April’s CPI report put the headline year-on-year inflation rate at 3.4 percent, the highest since 1991, eroding the likelihood of a near-term expansion of BOJ stimulus efforts. Added support was found in risk sentiment trends as fading monetary stimulus hopes weighed on the Japan’s Nikkei 225 benchmark stock index, feeding demand for the safe-linked currency.

A quiet economic calendar in European hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to the US data docket, where the spotlight will on April’s Personal Income and Spending figures as well as the final revision of May’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gauge. The trend in US economic data outcomes has looked increasingly supportive relative to expectations since early April, opening the door for upside surprises. Rosy news-flow is likely to bolster investors’ Fed policy outlook, driving the US Dollar higher.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (APR)

1.5%

-3.5%

9.2%

23:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (MAY)

0.5%

-

0.6%

23:01

GBP

Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (MAY)

6.1%

-

6.0%

23:05

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (MAY)

0

-2

-3

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (APR)

3.6%

3.6%

3.6%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (APR)

1.08

1.07

1.07

23:30

JPY

Household Spending (YoY) (APR)

-4.6%

-3.4%

7.2%

23:30

JPY

National CPI (YoY) (APR) (APR)

3.4%

3.4%

1.6%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (APR)

3.2%

3.1%

1.3%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (APR)

2.3%

2.3%

0.7%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (MAY)

3.1%

3.0%

2.9%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY)

1.9%

2.1%

2.0%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY)

2.8%

2.9%

2.7%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (APR)

4.1%

4.5%

7.4%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (APR)

-2.5%

-2.0%

0.7%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (APR)

2.29%

-

1.88%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (APR)

0.5%

0.4%

0.4%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (APR)

4.6%

4.5%

4.4%

3:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (APR)

5.3%

-

5.0%

4:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (APR)

3.4%

-

14.0%

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (APR)

-3.3%

-8.3%

-2.9%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (APR)

0.906M

0.863M

0.895M

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (APR)

104.9%

-

-8.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)

1.5%

-1.1%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)

0.2%

0.1%

Low

7:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator

102.1

102.04

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) (MAY P)

0.6%

0.6%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) (MAY P)

0.0%

0.2%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.3525

1.3565

1.3583

1.3605

1.3623

1.3645

1.3685

GBP/USD

1.6621

1.6669

1.6693

1.6717

1.6741

1.6765

1.6813

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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