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ECB Open to Euro Intervention, Draghi Comments Spark EUR/USD Selling

ECB Open to Euro Intervention, Draghi Comments Spark EUR/USD Selling

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Gregory Marks,

Talking Points:

-Rates on hold at 0.25%, MLF at 0.75%, DFR at 0.00%

-Euro spike at release and presser, intervention talk sparks selling

Draghi Comments:

-ECB open to intervention in June if needed

-FX risks to be monitored closely

-Euro’s impact on inflation is a serious cause for concern

-Exchange rate and weak domestic demand impacts prices

The European Central Bank left rates on hold at the May meeting today at 0.25% as expected. As with the April meeting, we saw the Euro spike at the rate decision, but Draghi’s remarks at the presser continued to push the Euro higher. At the Q&A session Draghi was pressed on the FX rate and it was said that the governing council had discussed Euro intervention and would be open to it in June if needed.

It is important to note at the Q&A that Draghi stressed the Euro rate in the context of price stability. Although he has stated multiple times that the Euro is not part of the policy mandate, by putting the rate in the context of price stability the governing council has more flexibility to act in regards to the mandate itself. It was said that any action could occur as soon as June if needed.

Following talk of unconventional instruments and the FX rate we saw the Euro come off from intraday highs. The Q&A is ongoing and live coverage can be found on the DailyFXTeam Twitter handle.

See the ECB’s forecasts from the March meeting.

EURUSD May 8, 2015 (5-Minute Chart)

ECB Open to Euro Intervention, Draghi Comments Spark EUR/USD Selling

Source: FXCM Marketscope

Gregory Marks, DailyFX Research Team

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