We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.19% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.17% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.12% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.05% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.05% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/3xiNijIufL
  • BOJ downgrades its assessment of all nine regional economies.- Nikkei
  • According to two Russian sources, Russia's maximum oil production cut under any global agreement would be 2mbpd #OOTT
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 1.94% Germany 30: 1.69% Wall Street: 0.92% US 500: 0.72% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/vnyj3KceX3
  • Italian PM Conte states that they may relax some anti-coronavirus measures by the end of the month - BBC
  • GBP UK's Raab to prepare public for lockdown extension- Guardian
  • European Opening Calls From IG: #FTSE 5721 +0.76% #DAX 10436 +0.99% #CAC 4466 +0.52% #AEX 504 +0.65% #MIB 17535 +0.89% #IBEX 6993 +0.59% #OMX 1511 +0.75% #STOXX 2869 +0.62%
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/dRSWjcCMFy
  • 🇬🇧 GBP Trade Balance (FEB), Actual: -£2973m Expected: £1000m Previous: £2409m https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-04-09
  • 🇬🇧 GBP Construction Output (YoY) (FEB), Actual: -2.7% Expected: 0.2% Previous: 0.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-04-09
Blame the Weather? USD/JPY Clears ¥103.50 on February NFPs Beat

Blame the Weather? USD/JPY Clears ¥103.50 on February NFPs Beat

2014-03-07 14:15:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- February NFPs beat modestly at +175K, but Unemployment Rate rises to 6.7%.

- US Dollar initially higher; Yen weakens across the board broadly.

- US 10-year Yield surges to 2.813% from pre-release low of 2.713%.

The February US labor market report was widely anticipated to come in weaker than expected in light of several disappointing data releases over the past several weeks. The major question on everyone’s mind – “is the weather having an impact on the economy?” - may be finding an answer. ‘Yes – to an extent.’

The jobs growth of +175K in February was better than the Bloomberg News consensus forecast anticipated, and the rise in the Unemployment Rate isn’t necessarily a poor indication of the state of the economy. Although the Unemployment Rate ticked higher by +0.1% to 6.7%, the labor force increased by +264K: more and more Americans are looking for work. This bucks the trend seen in the highly correlated ISM Services report.

Another important point to look to in this report is the jump in wages. Average Hourly Earnings increased by +0.4% m/m, the fastest pace since June 2013. This was double the 12-month average of +0.2%, and was only the fifth time since 2009 that wage growth has been increasing at such a pace. This could be an indication that the labor market is getting tighter.

Here’s the data sending the US Dollar on a ride:

- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (FEB): +175K versus +150K expected, from +129K (revised higher from +113K).

- Change in Private Payrolls (FEB): +162K versus +145K expected, from +145K (revised higher from +142K).

- Unemployment Rate (FEB): 6.7% versus 6.6% expected unch.

- Participation Rate (FEB): 63.0% unch.

See the US Dollar economic calendar for Friday, March 07, 2014.

Blame_the_Weather_USDJPY_Clears_10350_on_February_NFPs_Beat_body_Chart_1.png, Blame the Weather? USD/JPY Clears ¥103.50 on February NFPs Beat

US yields have been hammered the past several weeks (bond prices increasing), and the better than aexpected jobs data initially provoked a steepening of the yield curve (when bonds with longer duration see their yields increase at a faster rate than the shorter-end of the yield curve).

USDJPY 1-minute Chart: March 7, 2014 Intraday

Blame_the_Weather_USDJPY_Clears_10350_on_February_NFPs_Beat_body_x0000_i1028.png, Blame the Weather? USD/JPY Clears ¥103.50 on February NFPs Beat

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

The rise in the US 10-year Treasury Note yield to 2.813% also dragged USDJPY from near ¥102.85 ahead of the release to over 103.50. The USDJPY was trading at 103.58 at the time this report was written.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.