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Euro Higher on Draghi, ECB Optimism on Price Levels and Growth

Euro Higher on Draghi, ECB Optimism on Price Levels and Growth

Gregory Marks,

Draghi Comments:

-All ECB rates on hold, key benchmark remains 0.25%

-ECB is ready to consider all instruments available to the central bank

-ECB has had broad discussions on a rate cut, other measures

Credit Markets:

-ECB is monitoring money-market volatility closely

-Draghi says credit and monetary dynamics are subdued

-Weak lending reflects current credit risks and adjustment

Risks:

-Emerging market uncertainty, geopolitical risks could impact growth and recovery

-Downside risks to inflation are limited

-Inflation risks are broadly balanced

Economy/Forecasts:

-Expectations for inflation confirm the need for continued accommodative policy

-Rates will remain at 0.25% or lower for an extended period of time

-Increase in PMI services is good for job creation

-Forecasts assume declining oil prices

-Forecasts assume unchanged exchange rate

Euro:

-Exchange Rate is not a policy target

-Rate is very important for growth and inflation

Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank continued to remain optimistic at the March meeting about Euro-Zone prospects moving forward and even went as far as to raise 2014 GDP forecasts by a tenth of a percent. At the same time, the ECB lowered 2014 inflation forecasts from 1.1% to 1.0% while projecting a strong recovery towards the 2% target in the fourth quarter of 2016. Striking a more direct tone, the central bank head made clear that the situation in Europe is different from that of Japan’s and that the ECB is willing and able to consider all available instruments to combat risks moving forward.

Update following Draghi's presser and more forecasts here.

ECB Forecasts

On 3/6/14

Prior

2016 GDP

1.8%

-

2015 GDP

1.5%

1.5%

2014 GDP

1.2%

1.1%

2016 Inflation

1.5%

-

2016 (4Q) Inflation

1.7%

-

2015 Inflation

1.3%

1.3%

2014 Inflation

1.0%

1.1%

March 6th, 2014 ECB Rate Decision EUR/USD (1-Minute Chart)

Euro_Higher_on_Draghi_ECB_Optimism_on_Price_Levels_and_Growth_body_Picture_1.png, Euro Higher on Draghi, ECB Optimism on Price Levels and Growth

Source: FXCM Marketscope

Gregory Marks, DailyFX Research Team

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