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US Dollar Can't Shake Losses as 4Q GDP Misses on Fiscal Drag

US Dollar Can't Shake Losses as 4Q GDP Misses on Fiscal Drag

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- US economy grew by a modest +2.4% annualized rate in the 4Q’13.

- Consumption backbone of economy still, adds over +1.7% to headline.

- Austerity continues to hurt the economy – government spending weights by -1.1%.

The US economy grew at a modest pace in the 4Q’13, as today’s revision to the initial figure was a -0.2% revision. Earlier issues with inventory growth propelling the economy has been diminished (inventories only contributed +0.14%), and export growth continued to be a positive contribution (net-exports +0.99%).

One of the pressing questions from the 4Q’13 also retains its disappointment: the October government shutdown, alongside continued austerity, hurt the economy. Government spending was the only negative component to the 4Q’13 GDP figure (-1.1%). Congressional intransigience remains the biggest obstacle for the US economy and if it proves to be a weight to growth going forward, any negative feedback from the Federal Reserve’s tapering will be exacerbated – and that could provoke the Fed to stop tapering all together. (Don’t forget the potential weather impact.)

- GDP (4Q S): +2.4% versus +2.5% expected, from +2.7% (revised lower from +2.6%) (annualized) (q/q).

- Personal Consumption (4Q S): +2.6% versus +2.9% expected, from +3.3% (annualized) (q/q).

- GDP Price Index (4Q S): +1.6% versus +1.3% expected, from +1.1% (annualized) (q/q).

USDOLLAR 5-minute Chart: February 28, 2014 Intraday

US_Dollar_Cant_Shake_Losses_as_4Q_GDP_Misses_on_Fiscal_Drag_body_x0000_i1027.png, US Dollar Can't Shake Losses as 4Q GDP Misses on Fiscal Drag

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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