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Philadelphia Fed Survey Hits Seven Month Lows in February

Philadelphia Fed Survey Hits Seven Month Lows in February

Gregory Marks,

Talking Points:

-Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (Feb) comes in at -6.3 vs. 8.0 est. and 9.4 prior

-Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Feb A) comes in at -12.7 vs. -11.0 est. and -11.7 prior

-US Leading Index (Jan) comes in at 0.3%, meeting expectations while prior revised from 0.1% to 0.0%

While CPI figures out of the U.S. did not have a large impact on markets at 13:30GMT, the disappointing Philadelphia Fed figures just after the US market open helped add pressure to the greenback and U.S. equities on Thursday. The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey hit lows not seen since last winter in 2013. This print adds to negative data out of the U.S. over the past week including dismal January housing figures released on Wednesday.

A component breakdown of the Phili Fed Business Outlook indicates that we saw the worst MoM declines in prices paid, unfilled orders and delivery time. Although some market participants may blame the weather for this missed figure, by looking at data out of the U.S. over the past few months we can see that many economic figures were beginning to slow in December and prior to January/February northeast winter storms.

USD/CAD February 20, 2014 (5-Minute Chart)

Philadelphia_Fed_Survey_Hits_Seven_Month_Lows_in_February_body_Picture_1.png, Philadelphia Fed Survey Hits Seven Month Lows in February

Source: FXCM Marketscope

Yesterday, the FOMC Minutes from the January meeting ended one of the largest consecutive daily rallies in the S&P 500 futures contract history. Despite the worst Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey data print in seven months, US equities have strongly pulled off their post-release lows and the S&P 500 is just points below all time highs. Greenback weakness following the print has mostly retraced against the Euro, but near term pressure remains on USD/CAD after a massive rally yesterday.

Gregory Marks, DailyFX Research Team

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