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January US Housing Figures Contribute to Weak 2014 Data

January US Housing Figures Contribute to Weak 2014 Data

Gregory Marks,

Talking Points:

-Housing Starts MoM for January come in at -16% vs. -4.9% est.

-All housing data for January misses expectations, but all December prints revised higher

-USD weakness follows data ahead of US equity open

Home data released out of the U.S. on Wednesday indicated that pressure continues to build on the housing market following the Federal Reserve’s decision to taper asset purchases in December and January. We saw January figures for Housing Starts disappoint massively with a 16% decline MoM vs. -4.9% expected while Building Permits declined 5.4% MoM vs. -1.6% estimated.

2014 Data YTD

Actual

Survey

Housing Starts (Dec)

999K

985K

Building Permits (Dec)

1014K

986K

House Price Index MoM (Nov)

0.1%

0.4%

Existing Home Sales (Dec)

4.87M

4.93M

New Home Sales (Dec)

414K

455K

Pending Home Sales MoM (Dec)

-8.7%

-0.3%

Housing Starts (Jan)

880K

950K

Housing Starts MoM (Jan)

-16.0%

-4.9%

Building Permits (Jan)

937K

975K

Building Permits MoM (Jan)

-5.4%

-1.6%

There are a number of factors that continue to pressure the US housing market. By looking at new home sales data, we can say that demand has slowed over the past few months and this comes on the back of the Fed’s reduction in mortgage backed security purchases as the central bank sets out to end purchases in 2014. And as the Fed pulls back, a rise in the 30yr mortgage rate has made itself heard.

January_US_Housing_Figures_Contribute_to_Weak_2014_Data_body_boo.jpg, January US Housing Figures Contribute to Weak 2014 Data

USD/CAD February 19, 2014 (5-Minute Chart)

January_US_Housing_Figures_Contribute_to_Weak_2014_Data_body_Picture_2.png, January US Housing Figures Contribute to Weak 2014 Data

Source: FXCM Marketscope

Although we saw some initial USD weakness against the majors, USD/CAD continues to move higher on better than expected US PPI data as well as Canadian Wholesale Trade Sales figures that came in at -1.4% vs. -0.4% expected. Futures have come off the lows over the past hour, but momentum is waning ahead of the U.S. open. Note we have event risk later in the day with FOMC Minutes from the January meeting being released at 19:00GMT.

January_US_Housing_Figures_Contribute_to_Weak_2014_Data_body_Picture_1.png, January US Housing Figures Contribute to Weak 2014 Data

Gregory Marks, DailyFX Research Team

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