Bank of America Money Manager Survey Finds Sentinment Wavering
- BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Surveys finds Investors worried about China, global growth
- Investors move to record ‘underweight’ in Emerging Markets and ‘overweight’ on bank shares
- SSI confirms a ‘risk concern’ bias with a -2.2 S&P 500 and -3.7 EURUSD position
Through the beginning of 2014, investors have grown concerned about the stability of the global financial system as turmoil in the emerging markets encouraged a closer review of the system. In a recent survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the financial institution has offered a look into money managers’ (accounting for 145 managers and an approximate $456 billion in assets) expectations and concerns for the market. And, those concerns seem very similar to what we have seen from retail speculators.
Looking at the report, one of the most immediate highlights was the net 29% of respondents reported being underweight on the Emerging Market – a record. This concern moved up the scale with a net 40% worried that China’s economy would slow further, and those expecting a stronger global economy slipped to 56% from 75% the month before. Furthermore, ‘cash’ holdings (pulling out of speculative exposure) rose to 4.8% for the highest level of unease since July 2012. Perhaps one contradiction was the survey’s report that a net 28% of participants were ‘overweight’ bank shares – also a record. This may indicate while fund managers have adjusted, they have not fully given up on ‘risk’.
FXCM’s Speculative Sentiment Index presents evidence that the risk profile has shifted for retail traders as well. According to how retail traders are positioned, we find exposure to S&P 500 CFDs is 2.18 shorts per every 1 long (-2.18). With further risk exposure of their own, EURUSD positioning stands at -3.68, GBPUSD at -3.99 and NZDUSD (a carry trade pair) at -3.62.
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Written by Daniel Giardina, any comments, suggestions or feedback please email firstname.lastname@example.org
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.