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Holiday Conditions Prevalent as US GDP Surge to +4.1% Barely Moves USD

Holiday Conditions Prevalent as US GDP Surge to +4.1% Barely Moves USD

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- US economy growing faster than expected, boosted by a revision higher in consumption.

- Improved consumption momentum diminshes concern of prior inventory buildup.

- US Dollar little moved as liquidity thin ahead of Christmas.

Signs that the US economy may have had a fluke period of growth in 3Q’13 have been diminished after the final revision showed improvement in key areas. Notably, with the growth rate topping +4% (+4.1%) for the first time since 2011, there is hope that the inventory buildup during the quarter was warranted given the uptick in consumption.

As these data are the final revisions, much of the information has already been priced in; and therefore, very little reaction has been seen across the board. Here’s the data driving price action in the US Dollar:

- GDP (3Q F): +4.1% versus +3.6% expected unch (annualized) (q/q).

- Personal Consumption (3Q F): +2.0% versus +1.4% expected unch (annualized) (q/q).

- GDP Price Index (3Q F): +2.0% as expected unch (annualized) (q/q).

USDOLLAR 5-minute Chart: December 20, 2013 Intraday

Holiday_Conditions_Prevalent_as_US_GDP_Surge_to_4.1_Barely_Moves_USD__body_Picture_1.png, Holiday Conditions Prevalent as US GDP Surge to +4.1% Barely Moves USD

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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