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Improved Consumption at Start of Holiday Shopping Season Lifts Dollar

Improved Consumption at Start of Holiday Shopping Season Lifts Dollar

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Consumption above expectations again, further evidence economy stronger than anticipated.

- Implies growth into 4Q may remain elevated after +3.6% annualized in 3Q.

- USDJPY briefly trades back above ¥103.00.

The consumption figures in the November US Advance Retail Sales report beat estimates across the board, while Initial Jobless Claims missed and saw revisions higher. In an encouraging development, the Retail Sales Control Group figure – which is used in computing the headline GDP figure – beat expectations as well. The data today rounds out two weeks of generally improving data out of the United States, with last week’s 3Q’13 GDP and November NFP figures spurring optimism over the US economy as well.

Here’s the data that lifted the US Dollar this morning as yields edged up slightly:

- Advance Retail Sales (NOV): +0.7% versus +0.6% expected, from 0.6% (revised higher from +0.4%) (m/m).

- Retail Sales ex Auto (NOV): +0.4% versus +0.2% expected, from +0.5% (revised higher from +0.2%) (m/m).

- Control Group (NOV): +0.5% versus +0.3% expected, from +0.7% (revised higher from +0.4%) (m/m).

USDJPY 1-minute Chart: December 12, 2013 Intraday

Improved_Consumption_at_Start_of_Holiday_Shopping_Season_Lifts_Dollar_body_x0000_i1027.png, Improved Consumption at Start of Holiday Shopping Season Lifts Dollar

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

Following the data, the USDJPY jumped from ¥102.78 to as high as 103.04, helping the pair recover nearly all of its losses from Tuesday, when it traded as high as 103.39 (it traded as low as 102.15 this week). At the time this report was written, the USDJPY remained elevated at 102.99.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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