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ADP Employment Change Beats Ahead of NFP Friday

ADP Employment Change Beats Ahead of NFP Friday

Gregory Marks,

Talking Points:

-ADP Employment Change comes in at 215K vs. 170K surveyed

-prior print revised higher from 130K to 184K

-US Treasuries remain elevated, 10yrs above 2.83%

The ADP Employment Change for the month of November beat economists’ expectations of 170K, coming in at 215K while the prior print was revised higher from 130K to 184K. This impressive beat follows the ISM Manufacturing data on Monday that showed a better than expected employment component.

The ADP Employment Report is published monthly and provides a snapshot of the U.S. job market by measuring transactions on U.S. payroll data.

USD/JPY (15-Minute Chart)

ADP_Employment_Change_Beats_Ahead_of_NFP_Friday_body_Picture_2.png, ADP Employment Change Beats Ahead of NFP Friday

Source: FXCM Marketscope

After a somewhat weakened Wednesday morning, the USDollar saw some strength following the beat and continued to rise against the Yen. Strength continuation remained muted across most other major pairs as is usually the case with the ADP Employment Change data. It is important to note that US Treasury yields continue to remain elevated at over 2.8% since the release. It is possible we will not see the big trends start to play out until we get confirmation of this jobs data with Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday morning. If we see NFPs follow the ISM and ADP beat, we can expect renewed speculation of a small Federal Reserve ‘taper’ in December thus spurring Dollar strength and US Treasury weakness.

ADP_Employment_Change_Beats_Ahead_of_NFP_Friday_body_Picture_1.png, ADP Employment Change Beats Ahead of NFP Friday

Gregory Marks, DailyFX Research Team

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