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US Consumer Confidence Slide Continues, US Dollar Rebound Halted

US Consumer Confidence Slide Continues, US Dollar Rebound Halted

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Government shutdown ‘hangover’ continued to weigh on sentiment in November.

- Consumers see economy eroding into the 4Q’13.

- US Dollar suffers broadly, risk-appetite picks up.

The big drop seen in US confidence in October spilled over into November, with consumers seeing the effects of the government shutdown lingering for the foreseeable future. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence reading dropped for the third consecutive month, and is now at its lowest level since April 2013 (69.0), a month after the US budget sequestration was enacted.

Here’s the data hurting the US Dollar this morning:

- Consumer Confidence (NOV): 70.4 versus 72.6 expected, from 72.4 (revised lower from 71.2).

- 3-mo Confidence average: 74.3 from 78.1.

- Present Situation (NOV): 72.0 from 72.6.

- Expectations (NOV): 69.3 from 72.2.

Overall, there’s been little translation between a decline in confidence and the broader economy just far. Even though the October confidence figure plunged, we note that October Advance Retail Sales beat expectations; as did the October NFP report. This dip in confidence could prove to be a short-term phenomenon if incoming economic data continues to diverge as it has in recent weeks.

USDJPY 1-minute Chart: November 26, 2013 Intraday

US_Consumer_Confidence_Slide_Continues_US_Dollar_Rebound_Halted_body_x0000_i1027.png, US Consumer Confidence Slide Continues, US Dollar Rebound Halted

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

Following the data, the USDJPY was stopped short of its efforts to achieve new daily highs, trading down from ¥101.61 to as low as 101.37, at the time this report was written. It is worth noting that the weaker than expected data has yet to provoke a break of the daily low thus far at 101.33.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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