News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Last week’s march higher in EUR/USD may well extend further after Friday’s Eurozone economic statistics that will likely turn the ECB more hawkish on monetary policy. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • Cable is pulling off after a strong run; near-term weakness may be the theme before trying to rally again. Get your weekly GBP technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here:
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here:
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here:
  • USD/CAD has bounced off a key support area on Friday and could potentially charge higher in the coming week as risk-aversion over coronavirus fears has started to dominate market moves. Get your weekly CAD technical forecast from @DColmanFX here:
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here:
  • The US Dollar slipped last week after the Federal Reserve calmed taper timeline talks. Friday’s non-farm payrolls figure may rekindle upside USD bets if it impressive. Get your weekly USD forecast from @FxWestwater here:
US Economy Bucks Government Shutdown as October NFPs Crush Forecasts

US Economy Bucks Government Shutdown as October NFPs Crush Forecasts

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- October NFPs surge by expectations, reigniting taper talk as US Treasury yields surge.

- Unemployment Rate increases one-tenth of one percent to 7.3% as expected.

- USDJPY surges back to ¥98.92, erasing most of yesterday’s steep losses.

The October US labor market report was delayed by one week thanks to the US government shutdown, and that’s about the only impact the government shutdown had on the labor market. The October NFP figure was the third strongest of the year at +204K, behind August’s +238K final reading and the impressive +332K reading in February.

The strength in the data comes as a surprise to the market as the headline forecast called for only a gain of +120K, despite the fact that several secondary labor market prints in recent days had suggested that the US labor market was resilient in October. Of note, both the ISM Manufacturing and Services indexes improved in October, with the Employment subcomponents suggesting improving in the labor market.

US_Economy_Bucks_Government_Shutdown_as_October_NFPs_Crush_Forecasts1_body_Picture_1.png, US Economy Bucks Government Shutdown as October NFPs Crush Forecasts

Regardless, markets are taking the news as a sign that the Federal Reseve will begin to taper QE3 sooner than later – perhaps December given labor conditions bucking expectations. US Treasury yields have surged on the day, and are acting in a manner indicative of rising taper expectations: the middle or “belly” of the yield curve is seeing yields increase the fastest (a notable shift has developed just from a few hours ago this morning). This has proven bullish for the US Dollar previously this year.

Here’s the data lifting the US Dollar and hurting risk appetite:

- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (OCT): +204K versus +120K expected, from +163K (revised higher from +148K).

- Change in Private Payrolls (OCT): +212K versus +125K expected, from +150K (revised higher from +126K).

- Unemployment Rate (OCT): 7.3% as expected, from 7.2%.

- Participation Rate (OCT): 62.8% from 63.2%.

The data isn’t all around strong, however. The Participation Rate dropped to 62.8%, its lowest rate since 1978. This is not a strong sign of the underlying health of the economy – fewer and few Americans are participating in the labor market. Accordingly, the steady Unemployment Rate is a bit misleading. Nevertheless, as this is a demographic issue – one that can’t be solved simply by more or less QE – it shouldn’t serve as a major impediment to any Fed tapering plans.

USDJPY 1-minute Chart: November 8, 2013 Intraday

US_Economy_Bucks_Government_Shutdown_as_October_NFPs_Crush_Forecasts1_body_x0000_i1028.png, US Economy Bucks Government Shutdown as October NFPs Crush Forecasts

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

Following the data, the USDJPY soared from ¥98.07 to as high as 98.91, helping the pair recover nearly all of its steep losses from yesterday (the pair fell from a session high of 99.40 to as low as 97.61 over the course of five hours). The pair was trading at 98.69 at the time this report was written.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.