Talking Points:
- US economy growing faster than expected, although consumption remains soft.
- Inflation tracking sees price pressures back to +1.9% in 3Q’13.
- US yields rally off of post-ECB lows, lifting US Dollar across the board.
Signs that the US economy slowed through the end of the 3Q’13 have been washed away in one fell swoop, with the GDP report easily crushing expectations. In fact, only two economists of 87 polled suggested that the economy would grow by +2.8% or more; needless to say, the data is a pleasant surprise for the US Dollar.
Ahead of tomorrow’s October NFP release, the data today will assuage fears that the government shutdown has a more widespread impact on the economy. In fact, with US yields surging on the data – the 10-year yield moved from 2.559% ahead of the release to as high as 2.645% shortly after – market bias appears to be moving further in favor of further US Dollar strength over the coming days (US yields have firmed in recent days).
Here’s the data lifting the US Dollar:
- GDP (3Q A): +2.8% versus +2.0% expected, from +2.5% (annualized) (q/q).
- Personal Consumption (3Q A): +1.5% versus +1.6% expected, from +1.8% (annualized) (q/q).
- GDP Price Index (3Q A): +1.9% versus +1.4% expected, from +0.6% (annualized) (q/q).
USDJPY 1-minute Chart: November 7, 2013 Intraday
Charts Created using Marketscope – prepared by Christopher Vecchio
Following the data, the USDJPY jumped immediately from ¥98.78 to as high as 99.40, before pulling back to 99.28, at the time this report was written. Similar price action was observed elsewhere, with the EURUSD continuing its post-ECB slide (from €1.3497) to as low as 1.3295 (it lowest level since September 15). At the time this report was written, the EURUSD had recovered to 1.3337.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
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