THE TAKEAWAY: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey spikes to 22.3 vs. 9.3 prior and 10.3 est. -> Existing Home Sales beat 5.25M est. at 5.48M -> Leading Index higher at 0.7% vs. 0.6% est. USD Higher
With the Fed looking for better data ahead of any taper, today they should be pleasantly surprised. Existing Home Sales, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index and the Leading Index all beat estimates at the 14:00GMT print. Most notably, Existing Home Sales MoM came in at 1.7% vs. a 2.6% contraction estimated by a Bloomberg survey of economists.
This is a six and a half year high for Existing Home Sales.
The Leading Index is derived from ten different components that range from the S&P 500 to average hours worked by those in the manufacturing industry. The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook is an index that surveys manufactures in the Federal Reserve District. In July the index hit levels not seen since early 2011.
Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) (5-Minute Chart)
Source: FXCM Marketscope
Today’s data followed better than expected Jobless Claims that sent the Dollar higher this morning at the NY open. Although the Philadelphia Fed Index came in at its highest level since March of 2011, the reading should be taken with a grain of salt as the index contains the S&P 500 as a component. The S&P 500 saw record highs yesterday following the FOMC announcement that it would not reduce asset purchases of Treasuries and MBS. Nevertheless, continued data like this will support the Dollar.
Gregory Marks, DailyFX Research Team
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