News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Will be covering the Japanese #Yen to see how retail positioning could shape the outlook for $USDJPY, $AUDJPY and $EURJPY Starting in about 30 minutes! Signup for the session below:
  • Join @ddubrovskyFX at 20:00 EST/00:00 GMT for a webinar on what other traders' buy/sell bets say about price trends. Register here:
  • #BlackRock: We are neutral U.S. equities. We see U.S. growth momentum peaking and expect other regions to be attractive ways to play the next leg of the restart as it broadens to other regions, notably Europe and Japan $SPX $NDX
  • #BlackRock: The new nominal theme leads to a steeper yield curve expectation than market pricing. We see yields rising gradually, keeping us broadly underweight government bonds, particularly for longer maturities #trading $TLT
  • BlackRock: We are overweight European equities, and neutral Japan #trading
  • Gold prices face off with rising Treasury yields as jobs data approaches. Meanwhile, iron ore prices caught a small bid on bullish port activity out of China. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:
  • #Blackrock: We are moderately pro-risk and keep some cash to potentially further add to risk assets on any market turbulence #trading $SPX $RUT $DJIA
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: Natural Gas Outlook: Price Continues to Soar as Severe Winter Shortage Looms $NG $NG_F Link:…
  • USD/CAD is set to snap a five-day sell-off with today’s rally breaking near-term downtrend resistance. Get your $USDCAD market update from @MBForex here:
August US Sales Miss Undercuts US Dollar Rally; EUR/USD Retakes $1.3300

August US Sales Miss Undercuts US Dollar Rally; EUR/USD Retakes $1.3300

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

THE TAKEAWAY: Core and headline figures miss and prior revisions fail to offset, August report has slightly negative tone > Consumption trends in US steadying at low level, signifying slowing growth > EURUSD BULLISH

US economic data has been disappointing in recent weeks (especially on the ever-important inflation and labor market fronts), and the release of August consumption figures has done little to firm the tone regarding the US economy. The August Advance Retail Sales report showed that consumption is only moving forward at a modest pace, in part because the uptick in US interest rates is sapping purchasing power overall.

The headline figure came in weaker than expected at +0.2% m/m, but the prior revision up by two-tenths to +0.4% m/m negated some of the disappointment. An equally important indicator of US consumption – the Retail Sales Control Group, as it is the figure used to compute GDP – eased to +0.2% m/m from +0.5% m/m.

US Treasury yields have fallen on the news (the 10-year note yield decreased from 2.934% to 2.890% at the time this report was written), while precious metals have rallied, and the US Dollar has eased – a clear indication of investors realigning their bias towards the Federal Reserve offering only a minor step down in QE3 in September.

Here are the figures stoking US Dollar weakness:

- Advance Retail Sales (AUG): +0.2% versus +0.5% expected, from +0.4% (revised higher from +0.2% (m/m)

- Sales ex Auto (AUG): +0.1% versus +0.3% expected, from +0.6% (revised higher from +0.5%) (m/m)

- Sales ex Auto & Gas (AUG): +0.1% versus +0.3% expected, from +0.6% (revised higher from +0.4%) (m/m)

Read more: Traders Increase Bullish Kiwi Bets to Two-Year High; US Retail Sales Today

EURUSD 1-minute Chart: September 13, 2013

August_US_Sales_Miss_Undercuts_US_Dollar_Rally_EURUSD_Retakes_1.3300_body_x0000_i1027.png, August US Sales Miss Undercuts US Dollar Rally; EUR/USD Retakes $1.3300

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

Following the report, the EURUSD rallied immediately from $1.3292 to as high as 1.3321. However, as it became clear that the headline figures were misleading in context of the prior revisions, price began to retrace and the EURUSD was last quoted at 1.3305, at the time this report was written.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.