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Poor July Canadian Labor Data Sends Loonie to Fresh Lows

Poor July Canadian Labor Data Sends Loonie to Fresh Lows

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

THE TAKEAWAY: Canadian labor market lost jobs when expectation was for gains > Unemployment Rate unexpectedly jumps > Canadian economy weaker than anticipated as mixed data highlights week > USDCAD BULLISH

There were only a handful of “medium” and “high” ranked events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar this week for the Canadian Dollar, but today’s July labor market report was far and away the most important – and most disappointing.

The Canadian Dollar has sold off sharply in the wake of the data that showed the Canadian economy unexpectedly lost jobs last month, and overall, the report was significantly disappointing.

Here’s the data provoking the Canadian Dollar selloff:

- Net Change in Employment (JUL): -39.4K versus +10.0K expected, from -0.4K

- Unemployment Rate (JUL): 7.2% versus 7.1% expected

- Participation Rate (JUL): 66.5% versus 66.7%

Essentially, the labor pool shrunk, but the economy lost so many jobs that the Unemployment Rate rose anyhow (last week, we saw the US Unemployment Rate drop on a shrinking labor pool).

USDCAD 1-minute Chart: August 9, 2013

Poor_Canadian_Labor_Data_Sends_the_Loonie_to_Fresh_Lows_body_x0000_i1027.png, Poor July Canadian Labor Data Sends Loonie to Fresh Lows

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

Following the data, the USDCAD jumped from C$1.0294 to as high as 1.0348 at the time this report was written, before falling back to 1.0341. Similarly, the CADJPY dumped from ¥93.75 to the daily lows at 93.10.

Overall, it seems that near-term economic momentum across the globe may be shifting; previously North America was considered a leader. Now, momentum is behind the European currencies, which could continue to outperform the likes of the Canadian Dollar and the US Dollar in the coming periods.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.