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US Dollar Returns Some Previous Gains After Poor Advance Retail Sales Reading

US Dollar Returns Some Previous Gains After Poor Advance Retail Sales Reading

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Kevin Jin,

THE TAKEAWAY:USD Advance Retail Sales (JUN) > +0.4% versus +0.8% expected, from +0.5% (revised down from 0.6%) > EURUSD BULLISH

The US Dollar has given back earlier gains after the June Advance Retail Sales report, perhaps the best proxy for broader consumption – the biggest part of the US economy, showed that consumers pared back spending at the end of the 2Q’13, underscoring the likelihood of a sub-2% GDP print. Similarly, the report reflects the fragile situation in which improving jobs figures aren’t fully translating into the real economy yet.

Looking at the figure, sales grew by +0.4% m/m from May, when they expanded by +0.5% m/m. Overall, the report was nearly half as strong as expected, with the Bloomberg News consensus seeking a +0.8% m/m print; however, the three-month sales average increased from +0.1% to +0.4% after today’s report.

EURUSD 1-minute Chart: July 15, 2013

US_Dollar_Returns_Some_Previous_Gains_After_Poor_Advance_Retail_Sales_Reading_body_Picture_1.png, US Dollar Returns Some Previous Gains After Poor Advance Retail Sales Reading

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The EURUSD rallied up to $1.3050 following the miss in retail sales numbers. The pair immediately rallied about +30 pips at the moment of data release. The EURUSD did reach as high as 1.3053 and now trades just below 1.3050 at the time of writing. The total net change stands at about +40 pips (+0.30%) in the moments following the data release, at the time of writing.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst and Kevin Jin, DailyFX Research

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.