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EUR/USD Recoups Earlier Losses After July US Confidence Misses

EUR/USD Recoups Earlier Losses After July US Confidence Misses

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

THE TAKEAWAY: USD U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (JUL P) > 83.9 versus 84.7 expected, from 84.1 > EURUSD BULLISH

With US equity markets falling back from their recent highs in June, US consumers became slightly less optimistic regarding the state of the economy in early-July, per the most recent release of the U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey. The preliminary July gauge fell from 84.1 to 83.9, only a modest miss, and the first miss of the year.

Notably, the Economic Outlook subcomponent fell to 73.8 from 77.8, a sign that the Federal Reserve’s signaled policy shift (towards tapering QE3) has already had a real impact on the economy: US Treasury yields have endured their fastest rise since 1994. Accordingly, with mortgage rates jumping the past several weeks, consumers’ views on the housing market – and thus the broader economy – has slightly soured.

EURUSD 1-minute Chart: July 12, 2013

EURUSD_Recoups_Earlier_Losses_After_July_US_Confidence_Misses_body_x0000_i1027.png, EUR/USD Recoups Earlier Losses After July US Confidence Misses

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

Following the release, the US Dollar was sold across the board, most notably against the Euro and the Japanese Yen. The EURUSD rallied from $1.3022 prerelease to as high as 1.3047 at the time this report was written. Similarly, the USDJPY slid from ¥99.22 to as low as 98.88, but had rebounded back to 99.12.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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