THE TAKEAWAY: USD U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (JUL P) > 83.9 versus 84.7 expected, from 84.1 > EURUSD BULLISH
With US equity markets falling back from their recent highs in June, US consumers became slightly less optimistic regarding the state of the economy in early-July, per the most recent release of the U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey. The preliminary July gauge fell from 84.1 to 83.9, only a modest miss, and the first miss of the year.
Notably, the Economic Outlook subcomponent fell to 73.8 from 77.8, a sign that the Federal Reserve’s signaled policy shift (towards tapering QE3) has already had a real impact on the economy: US Treasury yields have endured their fastest rise since 1994. Accordingly, with mortgage rates jumping the past several weeks, consumers’ views on the housing market – and thus the broader economy – has slightly soured.
EURUSD 1-minute Chart: July 12, 2013
Charts Created using Marketscope – prepared by Christopher Vecchio
Following the release, the US Dollar was sold across the board, most notably against the Euro and the Japanese Yen. The EURUSD rallied from $1.3022 prerelease to as high as 1.3047 at the time this report was written. Similarly, the USDJPY slid from ¥99.22 to as low as 98.88, but had rebounded back to 99.12.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
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