News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Intel Q1 Earnings: Revs: $19.67B vs. est. $17.86B EPS: $1.39 vs. est. $1.15 $INTC
  • Gold Price Outlook: Are Gold Bulls Back in the Driver's Seat? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/xau-usd/2021/04/22/gold-price-outlook-are-gold-bulls-back-in-the-drivers-seat.html $Gold
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.00% US 500: -0.02% France 40: -0.40% Germany 30: -0.51% FTSE 100: -0.59% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/j5sQjRSVGX
  • GBP/USD is in full-retreat, falling below the 1.39 level as investors flock to $USD $GBPUSD https://t.co/QojEW8ksLC
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/arxYmtQeUn https://t.co/TUcaaK6R0T
  • White House Press Sec. Jen Psaki: President Biden believes that expenditures can be done on the backs of the wealthiest $USD
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.38% Gold: -0.70% Silver: -1.78% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/CYQirgCosh
  • All three major US indices fall into negative territory following President Biden's alleged proposal of higher capital gains taxes $SPX $NDX $DJI https://t.co/f0Bb21TCVX
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.13%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 68.84%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/HxbR43UaUw
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: -0.51% Germany 30: -0.61% FTSE 100: -0.62% US 500: -1.02% Wall Street: -1.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/BjQHCsjqBg
USD/JPY Rallies off of Two-Month Low After Retail Sales Beat Modestly

USD/JPY Rallies off of Two-Month Low After Retail Sales Beat Modestly

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

THE TAKEAWAY: USD Advance Retail Sales (MAY) > +0.6% versus +0.4% expected, from +0.1% (m/m) > USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 8) > 334K versus 346K expected, from 346K > USDJPY BULLISH

The US consumer continues to scrape by despite the fiscal impositions weighing on the broader economy – the payroll tax hike from January and the budget sequestration commencing in March. Advance Retail Sales, one of the better data proxies to broader consumption trends, increased by +0.6% m/m in May, the highest rate since February, when sales increased by +1.1% m/m. The headline print beat the consensus forecast of +0.4% m/m, and was just slightly under the high estimate of +0.8% m/m.

Also released, shining another bright light on the US economy, was the Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ended June 8. Claims fell to 334K, well-below the consensus forecast of 346K, and was the lowest such level since the week ended April 26 (327K). Should claims hold below 340K throughout June, a headline NFP print of +200K is possible.

Overall, this feeds neatly into the idea of reducing QE3 by the Federal Reserve next week, although these data today more or less brings the likelihood back to even on whether or not the reduction occurs. Certainly, if the US consumer is strengthening despite fiscal headwinds, there is reason to believe that the Fed will view the economy in a more favorable light and opt for a relatively more hawkish stance. Thus far, that trade is being reflected in USD-based pairs.

USDJPY 1-minute Chart: June 13, 2013

USDJPY_Rallies_off_of_Two-Month_Low_After_Retail_Sales_Beat_Modestly_body_x0000_i1027.png, USD/JPY Rallies off of Two-Month Low After Retail Sales Beat Modestly

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

Following the announcement, the USDJPY rallied from a kneejerk low at ¥93.94 to as high as 94.58, at the time this report was written. Before the announcement, the USDJPY had erased all of its gains since April 4, when the Bank of Japan had announced its QE program that reignited the rally towards 100.00.

Elsewhere, the EURUSD slipped from $1.3318 to as low as 1.3293 following the report, and was trading at said level at the time this report was written. The data could continue to spur the “QE3 taper trade” today, which implies higher US Treasury yields, and thus a stronger US Dollar.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES