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US Consumer Confidence Hits Five Year High, US Dollar Soars

US Consumer Confidence Hits Five Year High, US Dollar Soars

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

THE TAKEAWAY: USD Consumer Confidence (MAY) > 76.2 versus 71.2 expected, from 69.0 (revised higher from 68.1) > USDOLLAR BULLISH

Continuing the trend from the end of last week, the US Dollar has surged to fresh session highs against the Euro and the Japanese Yen after the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report for May showed that sentiment improved to its highest level since February 2008, when the index hit 76.4. The reading of 76.2 easily beat the consensus forecast of 71.2, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

A continued surge in home prices alongside US equity markets trading near all-time nominal highs has negated the impact of the payroll tax increase and budget sequestration on the US consumer, and with improvement in the report’s Business Conditions, Employment, and Income sub-indexes, there now is another tally in the Fed’s column to “Reduce QE3.”

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) Chart: May 28, 2013

US_Consumer_Confidence_Hits_Five_Year_High_US_Dollar_Soars_body_x0000_i1027.png, US Consumer Confidence Hits Five Year High, US Dollar Soars

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

Following the release, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) from 10813 to as high as 10848, with the Euro and the Yen leading the decline. Of the components, at the time this report was written: the AUDUSD fell from $0.9673 to as low as 0.9625; the EURUSD fell from $1.2910 to as low as 1.2955; the GBPUSD fell from $1.5106 to as low as 1.5040; and the USDJPY rallied from ¥102.20 to as high as 102.49.

Further gains in the USDJPY at this point are in question, however. The USDJPY rallied back towards its Thursday swing high at ¥102.55/60, but has yet to break this level at the time of writing. A noted three-wave decline off of the high set on Wednesday following the Bernanke testimony, at 103.73, suggests that a break of the 102.55/60 level would indicate that the decline is complete (Senior Currency Strategist Jamie Saettele noted this yesterday in the DailyFX Real Time News feed).

Accordingly, should price base above 102.55/60 by the end of Tuesday, further gains pointing to new highs near 104.20 shouldn’t be ruled out this week. On the flipside, if price is contained below Thursday’s key swing level, a move back to the 8-EMA and former intraday resistance at 101.85/2.00 is likely before USDJPY bulls reenter the picture.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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