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USD/JPY Rallies Back to ¥102.00 on Better than Expected Sales Report

USD/JPY Rallies Back to ¥102.00 on Better than Expected Sales Report

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

THE TAKEAWAY: USD Advance Retail Sales (APR) > +0.1% versus -0.3% expected, from -0.5% (revised down from -0.4%) (m/m) > USD Retail Sales Less Autos (APR) > -0.1% versus -0.2% expected, from -0.4% (m/m) > USDJPY BULLISH

Move aside, payroll tax and budget sequestration. On what’s being called “broad-based gains,” US consumers picked up the tab by +0.1% m/m more in April, well-above the -0.3% m/m figure forecasted by 81 economists for Bloomberg News. With the housing market rebounding and equity markets at all-time nominal highs, US consumers’ spending habits are starting to be reinvigorated, shrugging off the fiscal roadblocks the current feckless Congress has put in place.

Of note, stripped of gasoline purchases, sales rose by +0.7% m/m, suggesting that the strong US Dollar may be having some positive impact on the economy after all. In what was a discouraging aspect of the report, the annualized 3-month moving average of Advance Retail Sales fell to +4.0%, the lowest rate of 2013.

USDJPY 1-minute Chart: May 13, 2013

USDJPY_Rallies_Back_to_102.00_on_Better_than_Expected_Sales_Report_body_Picture_1.png, USD/JPY Rallies Back to ¥102.00 on Better than Expected Sales Report

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Christopher Vecchio

Following the release, the USDJPY traded up from ¥101.75 to as high as 102.04 in the minutes following the release. However, within 30-minutes of the strong US consumption report, the USDJPY had fallen back to as low as 101.73, and was trading at 101.78 at the time this report was written.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.