We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.09%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 82.60%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/m1lnP4G7B2
  • US President Trump weighing new trade probe to justify levying tariffs on EU, reports Politico $EURUSD
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.02% France 40: -0.02% Wall Street: -0.07% US 500: -0.14% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/lcyEhCEfsA
  • $USDJPY may be set for a larger pullback on the back of a deteriorating risk environment amid the potential failure in US-China trade talks. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/UOGT5xRX9v https://t.co/JLXsn96FQY
  • Poll: We've had some upgrades in a few growth forecasts from around the world recently and tomorrow brings the Nov PMIs (AUS, JPN, EZ and US). What do you think is the risk of a recession in 2020?
  • LIVE NOW: Join @JStanleyFX as he runs through price action set-ups for the FX and CFDs market. https://www.dailyfx.com/registerToSeminar?webinar=3952937094787220994&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • staring now -> https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/3952937094787220994?webinar=3952937094787220994&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/fk3MmFxalj
  • That was a fast reversal in crude oil positioning among retail CFDs yesterday. Not as heavy a build up in short as we pressure 58 https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/m1YFe8PEsM
  • LIVE IN 5 MINUTES: Join @JStanleyFX as he runs through price action set-ups for the FX and CFDs market. https://www.dailyfx.com/registerToSeminar?webinar=3952937094787220994&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.09%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 82.08%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/pxnhohjlR2
USD/JPY Rallies Despite GDP Miss as Initial Jobless Claims Beat Forecast

USD/JPY Rallies Despite GDP Miss as Initial Jobless Claims Beat Forecast

2013-02-28 14:20:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

THE TAKEAWAY: USD GDP (Annualized) (4Q S) > +0.1% versus +0.5% expected, from -0.1% > Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 22) > 344K versus 360K expected, from 366K (revised from 362K) > USDJPY BULLISH

The first revision to the 4Q’12 GDP has come in worse than expected, but it still managed to squeeze out a small positive revision overall. The US economy grew by +0.1% at an annualized pace last quarter, short of the +0.5% forecast, according to a Bloomberg News survey, although it still improved from the initially reported -0.1% figure. Even as defense spending plunged by an annualized pace of -22.0% in the 4Q’12, the smaller trade deficit at $395.2B – the smallest since 1Q’10 – helped boost the second release of the GDP figure.

Preventing further gains in the revision, however, was the softer than forecasted and softer than prior Personal Consumption figure. Consumer purchases rose by +2.1% at an annualized pace, down from +2.2% initially reported, and below the +2.3% reading as projected by consensus forecasts. This revision is not surprising, however; it was clearly signaled that taxes would be hiked in 2013 as part of some resolution to the US fiscal cliff/slope, thus denting consumption expectations and forcing a higher rate of savings. Consumption is the most important part of the US headline GDP figure, accounting for nearly 75% of overall growth.

Also released at 08:30 EST/13:30 GMT was the weekly Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 22) print, which came in much better than expected (and well-below the prior figure; see above). Despite the budget sequester set to hit tomorrow, March 1, employers continue to add staff amid a generally improving US economy. The current rate of 344K suggests that the February Nonfarm Payrolls report, released on March 8, will show that the economy added somewhere between +145K and +160K jobs.

USDJPY 1-minute Chart: February 28, 2013

USDJPY_Rallies_Despite_GDP_Miss_as_Initial_Jobless_Claims_Beat_Forecast_body_Picture_1.png, USD/JPY Rallies Despite GDP Miss as Initial Jobless Claims Beat Forecast

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

Following the releases, the USDJPY dipped from 92.28 to 92.12, in what was undoubtedly a knee-jerk reaction to the disappointing headline GDP figure. However, in the context of the big picture – stronger than previously forecast growth, and continued improvement in the labor market – the USDJPY surged through its prerelease highs, to trade back up towards 92.40. Likewise, while the other major pairs – the AUDUSD, the EURUSD – initially pushed higher, US Dollar strength became apparent soon after.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.