THE TAKEAWAY: USD Durable Goods Orders (OCT) > 0.0% versus -0.7% expected, from +9.2% (revised from +9.9%) (m/m) > USD/JPY BULLISH
Is the fiscal cliff/slope overblown? Perhaps; at least that’s what the October Durable Goods Orders report suggests. Orders for items with lifespans of three years or more (cars, refrigerators, etc) came in higher than forecasted, according to a Bloomberg News survey, a sign that consumption in the US isn’t taking the expected hit ahead of the fiscal cliff.
Orders were flat in October, versus a -0.7% monthly decline forecasted, from +9.2% m/m in September. Somewhat dampening the report was the September revision, which originally had a +9.9% m/m reading. Nevertheless, a better than expected headline reading suggests that consumers and businesses alike aren’t allowing the fiscal cliff to shape their spending habits into yearend, which could prove to result in a higher 4Q’12 GDP figure.
USD/JPY 1-minute Chart: November 27, 2012
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Christopher Vecchio
Following the release, the USD/JPY, which was already higher on the day, rallied from 82.13 to 82.22. With more significant US data due later, additional volatility should be expected in the pair.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
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