News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Strong September NIESR GDP Estimate Fails to Impress British Pound

Strong September NIESR GDP Estimate Fails to Impress British Pound

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

UPDATE: GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (MoM) (SEP) > +0.8% from +0.1% prior (revised from +0.2%) > GBPUSD NEUTRAL

One European economy is growing at an increasing rate: the United Kingdom. At least, that’s what the National Institute of Economic and Social Research’s September growth estimate showed today, which ticked up to +0.8% quarter-over-quarter from +0.1% q/q in August (quarterly here denotes trailing three-months ending in reporting month; this report estimated growth for July-August-September). For context, this is the single highest NIESR GDP estimate seen since July 2010 (+1.2% q/q). For a calendar quarter, this is the highest reading since the third quarter of 2007.

However, while the headline reading looks great, it is important to consider some one-off occurrences that took place in the middle of the year: the Queen’s Jubilee celebration as well as the London Olympics. These events undoubtedly provided a boost to growth: Bloomberg News suggests that a better guess for growth would be +0.2% or +0.3% q/q.

GBPUSD 1-minute Chart: October 9, 2012

Strong_September_NIESR_GDP_Estimate_Fails_to_Impress_British_Pound_body_Picture_2.png, Strong September NIESR GDP Estimate Fails to Impress British Pound

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

Accordingly, reaction to the release can be described as tepid at best, with the GBPUSD inching high for a few pips before falling back. The GBPUSD traded at 1.6010 before the release, and was at 1.6014 at the time this report was written.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.