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Estimated Rise in Inflation Sends Euro Higher

Estimated Rise in Inflation Sends Euro Higher

Benjamin Spier, Technical Strategist

THE TAKEAWAY: Euro-zone inflation estimate for September at 2.7% -> Inflation likely due to a rise in energy prices -> Euro trading slightly higher

Euro-zone annual inflation surprisingly climbed higher in September and set a new 6-month high according to an initial Eurostat estimate. The Consumer Price Index for September was estimated to be 2.7% higher than September 2011, beating expectations for inflation to fall to 2.4% from August’s 2.6% inflation rate.

Energy was estimated to be the biggest contributor to inflation, as prices rose 9.2% from September of last year, more than August’s 8.9% rise in energy prices. Food, alcohol, and tobacco prices rose 2.9% annually, and industrial goods prices only rose 0.8%.

The higher inflation is surprising when taken in the context of a suffering Euro-zone economy, as the Euro-zone economy was estimated to have contracted 0.2% in 2Q, and the inflation is therefore likely caused by a rise in energy prices. A higher inflation suggests that the European Central Bank is less likely to cut interest rates in their next meeting, and could therefore be Euro positive.

Therefore, the Euro rose slightly against the US Dollar following the release. EURUSD rose above 1.2950, and could find resistance by the key 1.3000 figure.

EURUSD 15-minute: September 28, 2012

Estimated_Rise_in_Inflation_Sends_Euro_Higher_body_eurusd_daily_chart.png, Estimated Rise in Inflation Sends Euro Higher

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