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German Producer Prices Bounce Higher

German Producer Prices Bounce Higher

Benjamin Spier, Technical Strategist

THE TAKEAWAY: German producer prices rise 0.5% in August, more than expected -> ECB may consider higher prices in next meeting -> Euro trading lower in today’s session

German producer prices beat expectations in August and rose higher for the first time in four months. Producer prices were reported at 0.5%, higher than the expected 0.4% and July’s 0.0% change. Producer prices rose 1.6% since August of 2011, according to the Federal Statistical Office.

Prices of basic goods were unchanged for producers, while energy prices rose 1.3% in August and consumer products were 0.4% higher. The higher producer prices fall in line with the recent rise in annual German inflation back above 2.0%.

The ECB will likely see higher inflation as a reason to not cut interest rates further, and therefore if prices rise across the Euro-zone it could be Euro negative. In the last ECB meeting, the central bank left the interest rate at 0.75%, instead of cutting the interest to 0.50% as expected.

However, the Euro did not significantly react to the higher producer prices. Major risk correlated currencies are all down against safe-have correlated assets this session, including the Euro against the US Dollar, following lower sentiments about a Euro recovery and weak data from the Asia session. EURUSD fell below the key 1.3000 line which has provided support for the past week, and could now provide resistance.

EURUSD 15-minute: September 20, 2012

German_Producer_Prices_Bounce_Higher______body_eurusd_daily_chart.png, German Producer Prices Bounce Higher

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