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German Exports Decline On Weakening Euro-Zone Demand

German Exports Decline On Weakening Euro-Zone Demand

Benjamin Spier, Technical Strategist

THE TAKEAWAY: German exports fell an unexpected 1.5% in June -> Weakening demand for exports from Euro-zone countries -> Euro decline

German exports fell 1.5% in June as demand from neighboring single currency countries was sapped by the Euro debt crisis. The 1.5% drop was 0.2% more than expected and follows May’s revised 4.2% rise in exports. Meanwhile, Germany’s trade balance rose to an unexpected 17.9 billion Euros, the highest balance in over a year, as imports unexpectedly fell 3%. May’s trade balance was revised to 15.6 billion, according to the German Federal Statistical Office.

The total value of German exports in June was 76.7 billion Euros, a 7.4% rise in exports from June 2011. Exports to Euro-zone countries were down 3% when compared to June 2011, while exports to countries outside the European Union were up 19.8%. Imports from other Euro-zone countries also fell 2.8% on a yearly basis.

Unlike May, Germany was unable to offset export declines to neighbors with higher exports to other regions, suggesting the country is failing to stave off the harsh effects of the debt crisis. Following the European Central Bank’s last meeting, President Draghi said it’s possible that the bank will take part in a bond purchasing program to help struggling countries lower their lending costs. However, Bundesbank’s Weidmann said he opposes such a plan, and we still haven’t heard of a solution on that issue.

Since the lower than expected German exports were reported, the Euro has fallen 20 points against the US Dollar, towards 1.2370. The currency has traded in an upward trend over the past few weeks, and support could now be found around 1.2350, by the 9-year upward trend line.

German_Exports_Decline_On_Weakening_Euro-Zone_Demand_body_eurusd_daily_chart.png, German Exports Decline On Weakening Euro-Zone Demand

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