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USDJPY Rebounds on Durable Goods Orders, Improved Claims Data

USDJPY Rebounds on Durable Goods Orders, Improved Claims Data

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

THE TAKEAWAY: USD Durable Goods Orders (JUN) > +1.6% versus +0.3% expected, from +1.6% > USDJPY BULLISH

Orders for Durable Goods in June expanded by +1.6% for a second consecutive month, data released today by the US Commerce Department showed. A significant rise in demand for aircraft and military hardware easily made up for the slowdown in business equipment spending, a Bloomberg News analysis showed. What this means is that corporate spending is contributing less to economic expansion, and as the US economy as well as the global economy slows, it appears that any further gains in Durable Goods Orders appear limited.

Also released at 08:30 EDT / 12:30 GMT were the weekly labor market figures, which showed that Initial Jobless Claims dropped by 35K to 353K, according to the US Labor Department. This comes in well-below the expected figure of 380K. The four-week moving average of Initial Claims has now dropped to 367.3K, its lowest such level since late-March; the implication here is the labor market may be improving, which would in turn limit the likelihood of further accommodative efforts by the Federal Reserve.

USDJPY 1-minute Chart: July 26, 2012

USDJPY_Rebounds_on_Durable_Goods_Orders_Improved_Claims_body_Picture_5.png, USDJPY Rebounds on Durable Goods Orders, Improved Claims Data

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

In reaction to the data, the biggest (and most important) mover was the USDJPY, which after dropping below 78.00 momentarily, rallied off of the psychologically significant figure and traded up to 78.21, at the time this report was written. Considering that the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar are both considered to be safe havens, the threat of dilutive monetary stimulus weighs heavily on the pairs. As such, when there is strong US labor market data, it tends to reduce the speculation for more QE from the Federal Reserve, which boosts the USDJPY as it did today.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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