News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.58%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 73.57%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/o0D0Ngucod
  • USD/JPY attempts to retrace the decline following the semi-annual testimony with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell amid a rebound in longer-dated US Treasury yields. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/Uos1L1Z4wG https://t.co/pZhubVlhjs
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.02% Gold: -0.15% Silver: -0.83% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/4gIoNck16b
  • The US Dollar is broadly stronger on the session with the latest flash PMI report from @IHSMarkit underscoring inflation pressures ahead of next week's Fed announcement. $DXY facing psychological resistance at the 93.00-handle, though. Link to Analysis - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/07/23/us-dollar-firms-as-pmi-data-echoes-inflation-risk-cue-the-fed.html https://t.co/SzMzzxoYzN
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.04% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.10% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.18% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.18% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/RykiRciAsZ
  • ECB's Weidmann: - New ECB goal does not mean there will be markedly higher inflation
  • ECB's Weidmann: - I expect inflation rates in Germany to rise to 5% by the end of 2021 - Governing council believes that expansive monetary policy is acceptable at the moment
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.74% Wall Street: 0.51% Germany 30: -0.03% France 40: -0.08% FTSE 100: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/iXJHlexTlA
  • USD/MXN trades directionless, oscillating between small gains and losses, near the 20.15 area. Get your $USDMXN market update from @DColmanFX here:https://t.co/FFr3rlGh6n https://t.co/7tniccl9S8
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.06% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.12% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.22% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.23% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/LZfExkLfjB
Australian Dollar Surges after Blowout 1Q GDP Print

Australian Dollar Surges after Blowout 1Q GDP Print

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

THE TAKEAWAY: Australian 1Q GDP > 1.3% q/q, 4.3% y/y > AUDUSD Bullish

What stalling Asian-Oceanic economies? Despite waves of poor data over the past few months suggesting that the Australian economy was going to be hurt by weak demand for her commodities, the first quarter growth reading released tonight has quieted the skeptics – for now. First quarter growth came in at 1.3 percent quarter-over-quarter, well-above the 0.6 percent forecast provided by Bloomberg News. Accordingly, the year-over-year reading at 4.3 percent easily crushed the 3.3 percent forecast.

To put in perspective how massive of a blowout print this was, the forecasts tell it all. With standard deviations of 0.2 percent for each the q/q and y/y readings, the actual 1.3 percent q/q and 4.3 percent y/y readings came in at 3.5 and 5.0 standard deviations above the estimates of 0.6 percent and 3.3 percent. This type of massive blowout on a major data print leads to one thing: exceptional volatility. It is of little surprise then that the Australian Dollar surged by over half of one percent against most of its major counterparts in the minutes following the release.

AUDUSD 1-minute Chart: June 5, 2012

Australian_Dollar_Surges_after_Blowout_1Q_GDP_Print_body_Picture_1.png, Australian Dollar Surges after Blowout 1Q GDP Print

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

Ahead of the release, the Australian Dollar was already the top performing currency of the day, surging on rumors of fresh Chinese stimulus efforts as well as a report that showed the Federal Reserve was readying more easing measures. The AUDUSD traded close to 0.9770 ahead of the release, but within minutes after rallied to fresh monthly highs – and levels unseen in a week – at 0.9854. Similar Aussie strength was noted across the board, in particular against the Japanese Yen, with the AUDJPY rallying from 76.88 to as high as 77.54, at the time this report was written.

Given this huge upside surprise, alongside the perfect storm for a strong move in higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets – Chinese stimulus rumors, Fed easing rumors, and an expected move by the European Central Bank at their meeting on Wednesday – there is some scope for the AUDUSD trade higher at least midway through the European session. Currently, the AUDUSD is trading into former trendline resistance at 0.9845/60. Should the pair post an hourly close above said level, there is room to run up to 0.9880/0.9900, and a daily close above this zone exposes 0.9930 and parity, 1.0000.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES