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Global Equity Monitor: Techno-Fundamental Research & Analysis

Global Equity Monitor: Techno-Fundamental Research & Analysis

2012-03-01 08:55:00
Joel Kruger and David Schutz,
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  • US equities could finally be poised for break below 20-Day SMA
  • UK equities already establishing below 20-Day SMA to warn of bearish acceleration
  • German equities also looking for close back below 20-Day SMA to confirm structural shift
  • Japanese equities rolling over from severely overbought technical levels
  • Australian equities under pressure and heading back to multi-day range lows

US30 (Dow)

Global_Equity_Monitor_Techno-Fundamental_Research_body_us30.png, Global Equity Monitor: Techno-Fundamental Research & Analysis

Technical: Although the market has been very well bid in recent weeks, we are starting to see signs of exhaustion and will be looking for a pullback over the coming sessions. The key indicator to watch is the 20-Day SMA, and a break and close below will be used as confirmation for the onset of some bearish price action likely to result in a period of multi-day selling. Inability to close below the 20-day however will keep the bullish structure intact.

Fundamental: Despite losing momentum after the Fed’s Berkanke’s quashed hopes for a third round of quantitative easing in his policy speech two days ago, markets were bolstered by yesterday’s upward revision to US Q4 gross domestic product to 3%. The Fed chairman today is expected to address the Congress, a development which markets await eagerly. Meanwhile, we anticipate the market impact of today’s US manufacturing data.

UK100 (FTSE)

Global_Equity_Monitor_Techno-Fundamental_Research_body_uk1000.png, Global Equity Monitor: Techno-Fundamental Research & Analysis

Technical: A close below the 20-Day SMA is significant here and could now trigger a healthy and needed pullback in this market. Look for a break below 5,829 to confirm and accelerate declines towards 5,5650 over the coming sessions. Back above 6,000 negates and gives reason for pause.

Fundamental: UK stocks remain well supported, rebounding today after the biggest selloff in a month yesterday. Markets were bolstered by a second straight improvement in the monthly manufacturing purchasing manager’s index today. Markets are expected to receive an additional boost from manufacturing data out of the United States today.

GER30 (DAX)

Global_Equity_Monitor_Techno-Fundamental_Research_body_ger30.png, Global Equity Monitor: Techno-Fundamental Research & Analysis

Technical: No major signs of reversal just yet despite daily studies tracking into overbought territory on the daily chart. Still, while the up-trend remains intact, there are risks for a significant short-term pullback ahead. Look for a break below the 20-day SMA to confirm short-term shift and open the door for an acceleration of declines. Above 7,000 delays bearish outlook and gives reason for pause.

Fundamental: European markets continue to experience the effects of yesterday’s ECB LTRO, with peripheral EU bond spreads out of Italy and Spain showing marked improvement today. German manufacturing PMI stayed within the range of expectations today, coming in marginally higher than expected. Meanwhile, The Eurozone unemployment rate todayrose more than expected to 10.7%.

JPN225 (Nikkei)

Global_Equity_Monitor_Techno-Fundamental_Research_body_jpn225.png, Global Equity Monitor: Techno-Fundamental Research & Analysis

Technical: Daily studies are finally starting to correct from violently overbought levels and we would recommend that bulls proceed with caution over the coming days. From here, short-term risks are tilted to the downside so that technical studies can unwind from these overextended readings. Look for a pullback towards the previous resistance now turned support by the 200-Day SMA in the 9,000 area before considering possibility of a bullish resumption. Wednesday’s high by 9,863 could now represent a meaningful short-term top.

Fundamental:We are starting to see signs that the market here has overheated, with the Yen beginning to strengthen today and stocks slightly falling. However, sentiment was bolstered today by the news that Japanese companies’ capital spending jumped by the most in almost five years in the fourth quarter of 2011. Amid a booming market aided by significant government stimulus, the Bank of Japan’s Shirakawa yesterday said the BOJ will “pursue strong monetary easing.”

AUS200 (ASX)

Global_Equity_Monitor_Techno-Fundamental_Research_body_aus200.png, Global Equity Monitor: Techno-Fundamental Research & Analysis

Technical: Rallies have been well capped above 4,300 as we had anticipated and the market is in the process of rolling back over in favor of a bearish decline towards 4,165. A break below 4,165 will then accelerate setbacks and expose 4,100 and the 4,000 further down. Ultimately, only a daily close back above 4,315 gives reason for pause.

Fundamental:A strong Chinese manufacturing PMI today saw the Aussie dollar strengthen against its peers, as signs of improvement in China boosted the outlook for the South Pacific nations’ exportors. Meanwhile, Australian manufacturing grew in February for the third straight month. The growth was led by the clothing, footwear, and transport equipment sectors.

--- Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

To contact Joel Kruger, email jskruger@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKruger

To be added to Joel Kruger’s distribution list, send an email with subject line “Distribution List” to jskruger@dailyfx.com

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