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Canadian Dollar Gains as October Retail Sales Double Consensus Forecasts

Canadian Dollar Gains as October Retail Sales Double Consensus Forecasts

2011-12-21 16:07:00
Trang Nguyen,
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THE TAKEAWAY: Canadian Retail Sales Rose Double Forecast in October> Sales in motor vehicles, gasoline stations and Clothing Sector Climbed > Canadian Dollar Gains

Canadian retails sales climbed for the third straight month in October, fueled by higher sales in motor vehicle and part dealers and gasoline stations. According to Statistics Canada report today, retail sales surprisingly rose 1.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted C$38.6 billion in October, double consensus estimates from Bloomberg survey. The less volatile figure, excluding auto sector, printed at 0.7 percent higher than the preceding month amid forecasts of merely 0.2 percent increase. September gain was revised downward to 0.4 percent compared to 0.5 percent initially reported.

Canadian Retail Sale: January 2010 to Present

122111_CAD_Retail_Sales_October_body_Chart_1.png, Canadian Dollar Gains as October Retail Sales Double Consensus Forecasts

Prepared by Trang Nguyen

Sales in retail stores exceeds consensus forecast as gains were recorded in seven of eleven major categories that account for more than seventy percent of retail sales. Sales of motor vehicle and parts dealers advanced 2 percent, following 2.8 percent increase in September and 1.0 percent in August, with rise in new car purchases and other motor vehicles compensating for decline in used cars. Besides, gasoline station sales rose 1.8 percent on higher prices at the pump. Sales in clothing and clothing accessories stores climbed for the second month, picking up 1.9 percent due to rising consumers spending for holiday season. Likewise, sales edged up 1.7 percent at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores. On the other hand, furniture and home furnishing sales retreated for the second consecutive month as gain in sales in home furnishing store was insufficient to offset significant loss in furniture stores.

In terms of region, gains in retail sales were reported in nine of thirteen major provinces in October, among which Alberta registered for the largest gain of 3.0 percent. Saskatchewan and Manitoba both experienced the second largest percentage increase of 1.9 percent. Besides, British Columbia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island also reported sizable gains. In contrast, sales in Nunavut retreated 1.2 percent while sales in Ontario, Nova Scotia and Northwest Territories little changed.

USD/CAD 1-minute Chart: December 21, 2011

122111_CAD_Retail_Sales_October_body_Picture_1.png, Canadian Dollar Gains as October Retail Sales Double Consensus Forecasts

Charts created using Strategy Trader– Prepared by Trang Nguyen

The loonie immediately gains its footings against most of its major peers following the better-than-expected retail sales report. Canadian dollar appreciates about 0.5 percent versus the Swiss franc and advances about 0.5 percent against the euro. Also, Canadian dollar totally erased loss versus U.S. dollar and trades higher before North American trading session today. The 1-minute USDCAD chart above illustrates bearish reaction regarding to USD/CAD pair. The currency pair rapidly slipped about 40pips from 1.0300 to 1.0270 after forty-five minutes. The Relative Strength Indicatorsliding below 30 to the oversold territory signaled that foreign exchange trading crowd was massively selling the greenback in favor of the loonie. At the time this report was written, the Canadian dollar gains to 1.0275 per U.S. dollar.

--- Written by Trang Nguyen, DailyFX Research Team for DailyFX.com

To contact Trang, email tnguyen@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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