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ISM Manufacturing Index Rises to 5 Month High, US Dollar Rebounds

ISM Manufacturing Index Rises to 5 Month High, US Dollar Rebounds

2011-12-01 17:11:00
Trang Nguyen,
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THE TAKEAWAY: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Expanded Largest in Five Months> Lower Raw Materials and Higher Level of New Orders > USD Rebounds

Institute of Supply Management reported today that manufacturing in the U.S expanded the most in five months in November as a result of lower raw materials pricing and favorable levels of new orders. The ISM Manufacturing Index, which tracks the amount of manufacturing activity occurred in the previous month, unexpectedly rose 52.7 in November from 50.8 in October. The reading beats median estimate as economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted a print of 51.8. The index stayed above 50-level for twenty-eight straight months, signifies substantial expansion in the manufacturing sector. As can be seen from the chart below, manufacturing in the U.S. grew robustly in the first three months of this year but has moderated its pace since the March earthquake disrupted supply chains.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing: June 2010 to Present

120111_US_ISM_Manufacturing_November_body_x0000_i1026.png, ISM Manufacturing Index Rises to 5 Month High, US Dollar Rebounds

Prepared by Trang Nguyen

The index takes into account expectations for future production, new orders, inventories and employment deliveries. New orders sub-index climbs to 4.3 percent to 56.7 in November from 52.4 in October due to increased consumer spending couple with higher demand from international markets during shopping seasons . Likewise, Production sub-index climbs 6.5 percent to 56.6, indicating growth for the third straight month after shrinking for only month. Employment in production sector registered gain for the twenty-sixth consecutive month, at slower pace, though. The Employment sub-index dropping 1.7 percent to 51.8 in November from 53.5 in the previous month due to decreases in employment in petroleum, electrical equipment, and transportation equipment factories. Customer inventories remained unchanged as its sub-index improved from contraction level of 43.5 to flat level of 50.0.

ISM Prices Index, which reflects business sentiment regarding future inflation, came in at 45.0, matching with consensus forecast. This marks the second consecutive month of contraction in the Prices Index. Price pressures were reduced in ten of eighteen manufacturing industries, especially in textiles mills, electrical equipments, appliances and components. However, five industries including metals, food and beverage, computer and electronic products and transportation equipment reported paying higher prices in the month of November.

AUD/USD 1-minute Chart: December 1, 2011

120111_US_ISM_Manufacturing_November_body_Picture_1.png, ISM Manufacturing Index Rises to 5 Month High, US Dollar Rebounds

Charts created using Strategy Trader– Prepared by Trang Nguyen

U.S. dollar traded lower before North America trading session today because of lingering effects of the central banks’ coordinated intervention to lower swap rate yesterday. Yet, the greenback gains its footing following the ISM manufacturing report. The 1-minute AUD/USD chart above illustrated that the AUD/USD currency pair dropped about 50 pips from 1.0260 to 1.0210. . The Relative Strength Indicatorfalling below 30- level signaled that traders were aggressively buying the dollar. At the time this report was written, the U.S. dollar strengthened 0.6 percent versus the aussie, traded at 0.9783 Australian dollar.

--- Written by Trang Nguyen, DailyFX Research Team for DailyFX.com

To contact Trang, email tnguyen@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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