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EZ Business Climate Beats Forecast; Consumer Confidence as Predicted

EZ Business Climate Beats Forecast; Consumer Confidence as Predicted

2011-10-27 09:54:00
David Schutz,
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THE TAKEAWAY -> EZ Business climate data less bad than expected -> bailout results dubious, remain to be seen -> risk-based markets well bid

October’s European business climate indicator released today showed a smaller than expected drop, coming in at -0.18 as opposed to the predicted -0.20. Last month’s reading was -0.06. Meanwhile, consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in two years although the market was ready for it to drop lower – a sentiment index fell to 94.8 from September’s 95.0, although economists had predicted a drop 93.8.

European recession fears are growing as governments tighten austerity measures. Yesterday’s EU summit produced a bailout plan that included a EUR1 trillion EFSF fund and an agreement with the banking sector for financial institutions to accept 50% of the Greek loss. Markets have jumped at the news today with major European indices posting exceptional gains.

Even so, questions are starting to arise regarding the plan’s lack of detail and the ability of banks to accept the proposed haircuts. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborn today warned of “blank spots” in the deal, and other key officials have criticized the plan as heavy on words but lighter on real solutions.

The market reaction to yesterday’s developments has seen a heavy trend towards risk correlated assts, with the Euro today breaking key psychological barriers at 1.40. Even so, we continue to project an overall bearish outlook on the Euro with the belief that at best, the proposed Euro solution will not be a magic pill for the EMU’s deep-reaching issues.

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