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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rebounded Less Than Forecast in September

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rebounded Less Than Forecast in September

2011-10-24 14:31:00
Trang Nguyen,
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THE TAKEAWAY: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rebounded Less Than Estimates in September> Production Sector Improved and Housing Sector Remained Weak> U.S. Dollar Mixed

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a weighted average of 85 economic indicators, improved to minus 0.22 in September from a minus 0.59 revise in August, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago gauge today. The print missed consensus forecast of minus 0.10 from Bloomberg survey. A negative index reading pointed to a below-trend growth and lessening pressures on future inflation. The three-month average, which provides a more consistent picture of national economic growth, moved up to minus 0.21 from Augusts’ minus 0.28. Despite of remaining in negative territory for the sixth straight month in a row, three-month average figure has not signaled a possible recession in the near future. The August monthly index was revised downward to minus -0.59 from an initial estimate of minus 0.43.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index: January 2010 to Present

102411_Fed_National_Activity_Index_body_Picture_1.png, Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rebounded Less Than Forecast in September

Prepared by Trang Nguyen

Of 85 economic indicators that constructed the Chicago Fed national index, thirty-nine made positive contributions while forty-six made negative contributions. Fifty-six indicators picked up from August to September, while twenty-seven indicators worsened and two were unchanged. Production-related indicators made a positive contribution of 0.02 to September’s reading with 0.2 percent gain in industrial production and 0.4 percent advance in manufacturing production. Consumption and housing sector slightly improved to minus 0.3 from minus 0.38 in August, in which rise in housing starts offset decline in housing permits. Sales, orders and inventories category add 0.02 to the index after contracting 0.03 in August.

USD/CAD 1-minute Chart: October 24, 2011

102411_Fed_National_Activity_Index_body_Picture_4.png, Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rebounded Less Than Forecast in September

Charts created using Strategy Trader– Prepared by Trang Nguyen

Foreign exchange trading crowd show mixed reactions in the greenback following the release. As can be seen from the one-minute USDCAD chart above, the currency pair increased about 15 pips from 1.0055 to 1.0070 after five minutes. Then, the currency fell back to 1.0050 after twenty five minutes. At the times this report was written, the greenback traded at C$1.00598. Obviously, the Chicago Fed national index reading today reinforces the concerns about the slow recovery as well as deteriorated employment and housing conditions in the United States. The figure also somewhat fuels the speculation on the third round of quantitative easing that helps boost economic growth and support a sagging mortgage market as well.

--- Written by Trang Nguyen, DailyFX Research Team for DailyFX.com

To contact Trang, email tnguyen@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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