We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • First case of coronavirus in Latin America after Brazilian government confirmation $BRL
  • LIVE NOW! Currency Startegist @PaulRobinsonFX discusses important technical developments relevant to short to intermediate-term commodity and equity index traders here - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/816147795?CHID=9&QPID=917720&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Housing data may be more heavily scrutinized in 2020 as softer global growth places more stress on the consumer to keep the American economy afloat. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/ms4EGbJ1WF https://t.co/sui80Dc5Pz
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: Currency Startegist @PaulRobinsonFX discusses important technical developments relevant to short to intermediate-term commodity and equity index traders here - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/816147795?CHID=9&QPID=917720&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/s57BFFNerk
  • Join @PaulRobinsonFX 's #webinar at 5:30 AM ET/10:30 AM GMT to gain insight on indices and commodities for the active trader. Register here: https://t.co/gghsFsZYlx https://t.co/fxL1oNZFqG
  • RT @IGSouthAfrica: Last chance to register for today's 'Price gap analysis' webinar starting at 12pm with @ShaunMurison_IG register free he…
  • #USD / #ZAR vs SA Financial Index #Budget2020 #CoronavirusOutbreak the major influencers right now https://t.co/jvtDqfnG1e
  • Aside from the equity bloodbath. It is budget day in South Africa. - A poorly received budget will raise the likelihood that Moody's could downgrade SA sovereign debt to junk on March 27th - IMF previously stated that a downgrade could lead to $ZAR 20bln worth of outflows
  • #USD / #ZAR broken out of short term range ahead of the #BudgetSpeech continuing uptrend, but #CoronavirusOutbreak the major catalyst R15.45/$ next resistance target https://t.co/vvb4RpGWlX
German IFOs Show Continued Deterioration Despite Beat; Euro Outlook Remains Bleak

German IFOs Show Continued Deterioration Despite Beat; Euro Outlook Remains Bleak

2011-09-26 08:56:00
Jonathan Granby,
Share:

THE TAKEAWAY:German IFOs beat expectations but fall from August > Economic activity keeps slowing > EURUSD embarks on intraday rally

The German IFO survey’s for September came in better than expected across the board but showed continued deterioration in the EMUs largest economy. The expectations component came in at 98.0 beating expectations of 97.3 but fell from Augusts 100.0 (revised down from 100.1), the current assessment survey came in at 117.9 beating forecasts of 115.7 but also fell from the prior showing of 118.1 and finally, the business climate came in at 107.5 higher than consensus forecasts of 106.5 but dropping from 108.7 in August. Looking at the breakdown; manufacturing and construction sectors were hardest hit, but wholesale and retail trade both accelerated. This suggests that domestic strength may finally be picking up, somewhat unexpectedly, but a positive signal nonetheless. IFO’s Abberger in his usual post-release comments was quick to play down the positive looking result noting his lack of optimism about the future for Germany as demand for its exports slumps amid slowing global growth. He is confident however, that Germany can avoid a recession saying that firms have built up a solid buffer. On ECB policy he expects rate cuts “toward” 1%, although he adds that the time frame for loosening is uncertain.

The outlook for Germany in Q3 and Q4 2011 is rather bleak as lower global demand for exports saps its economic strength and EU debt contagion risks keep ordinary German’s under the cosh. The bright spots, like healthy employment trends, are likely to be cast aside as broader problems outweigh any shimmer of hope. As politics plays are larger and larger role in discussions about the EU debt crisis with each leader needing to please their own constituents we could see significant cracks beginning to appear in the EMU. German’s have already made it quite clear that they do not want anymore taxpayer money sent abroad, especially in a climate where German growth is at risk itself. Coming at a time when there is much talk for expansion of the EFSF (the Bundestag votes on extending the EFSF on Thursday) we could see a serious deterioration in relationships across the euro-region as Chancellor Merkel gets stuck between her constituents demands, her domestic political future and the expectations of the euro-zone from its largest and most robust member. We expect these gyrations to come to a crescendo in coming months as politicians and citizens clash over the spending of taxpayer money, nowhere more acutely than in Germany.

German_IFOs_Show_Continued_Deterioration_Despite_Beat_Euro_Outlook_Remains_Bleak_body_eur.png, German IFOs Show Continued Deterioration Despite Beat; Euro Outlook Remains Bleak

The euro managed to extend its European session rally, which had seen the pair re-take the 1.3400 handle after an early dip lower, in the aftermath of the mostly positively looking release. However, these gains, and indeed the release itself, are likely to be of note only for a short time as the focus remains on the IMF, G20 and EMU; most notably what do with Greece, how to recapitalize banks and how to put an end to the EU debt crisis. All this comes to the backdrop of slowing global growth led by the US economy which is teetering on re-entering recession and China which is teetering on the edge of a cliff and plunging to a dramatic and far-reaching slowdown. With this in mind our outlook for the euro remains bearish eying the 1.3000 and 1.2000 levels as key downside targets over coming weeks as the greenback continues to rally on safe haven plays. In the shorter term over stretched technicals point to a need for a near term pullback. For a full technical outlook.

Written by Jonathan Granby, DailyFX Research Team

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.