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Better Retail Trade Data Restores Confidence in Economy; Yen Choppy

Better Retail Trade Data Restores Confidence in Economy; Yen Choppy

2011-06-28 00:26:00
David Liu, Technical Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAY: More trade > Higher demand for Yen > JPY Strengthens

The Japanese yen was helped by better than expected retail sales for May despite a decline in Large Retailers’ Sales. Because Japan is an export economy, investors paid more attention to trade data, indicating a recovery in Japanese industries after the March Tohoku Earthquake.

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

Retail Trade YoY (MAY)

-1.3%

-2.2%

-4.8%

Retail Trade MoM SA (MAY)

2.4%

1.2%

4.1%

Large Retailers’ Sales (MAY)

-2.4%

-1.9%

-1.9%

Although trade data and retail sales are low-importance events for the Japanese yen and better trade data usually saps risk aversion and weakens the yen, the large improvement from analyst expectations buoyed the Japanese currency against the greenback. Investors are most likely interpreting the new data as an indication of recovering demand for Japanese goods which requires Japanese yen.

At the time of writing, however, the yen was trading in a choppy channel against both the US dollar and the Euro as traders anticipate the result of the Greek austerity vote on Wednesday, June 29th. Despite today’s announcement that the French lenders were close to agreement on a rollover of 70% of their Greek debt, Euro selling was seen again. The benchmark Nikkei 225 was up +1.02% at 9676.09.

For more details on the French rollover plan, please visit this article: Euro Pares Back Losses in Overnight on Proposed Debt Rollover

Better_Retail_Trade_Data_Restores_Confidence_in_Economy_body_Picture_5.png, Better Retail Trade Data Restores Confidence in Economy; Yen Choppy

USDJPY 5 minute chart; vertical line indicates time of release. Chart generated with FXCM Strategy Trader.

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