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NZ Trade Balance Unexpectedly Falls, Fuels NZD Selling

NZ Trade Balance Unexpectedly Falls, Fuels NZD Selling

2011-06-26 23:14:00
David Liu, Technical Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAY: Exports fall > Less demand for NZ goods > NZD falls

The New Zealand dollar continued its selloff from early morning after May trade data showed a significant dropoff from April’s record highs. The Kiwi dollar fell almost 1% since early trading as investors continue to wait for the outcome of the Greek rescue package.

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

Trade Balance (NZD) (MAY)

605M

1000M

1148M

Exports (NZD) (MAY)

4626M

4725M

4678M

Imports (NZD) (MAY)

4021M

3750M

3530M

Balance (YTD) (NZD) (MAY)

1067

1410

1232

Significant weakness in New Zealand exports can be attributed to the strong New Zealand dollar against both the greenback and the Australian dollar. The strength has hurt the competitiveness of Kiwi goods especially in Australia, its largest trading partner. Further tightening from China has also sapped demand for New Zealand soft commodities including lumber and wool. Exports to China fell from NZD 585.7 million in April to NZD 559.6 million in May.

NZ_Trade_Balance_Unexpectedly_Falls_body_Picture_5.png, NZ Trade Balance Unexpectedly Falls, Fuels NZD Selling

Historic NZ Trade Balance. Chart Generated with Bloomberg LP Professional Terminal.

Fears that the New Zealand economy may be facing additional headwinds prompted continued selling off against its American counterpart. Early morning selling was attributed to fears that reconstruction plans for the June 14th Earthquake in Christchurch would be delayed, hurting industrial recovery. Additionally, concerns from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s comments that China will stimulate its domestic economy while continuing to fight inflation hurt the Kiwi dollar in early trading.

NZ_Trade_Balance_Unexpectedly_Falls_body_Picture_6.png, NZ Trade Balance Unexpectedly Falls, Fuels NZD Selling

NZDUSD 5 Minute Chart; vertical line indicates time of data release. Chart generated with FXCM Strategy Trader.

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