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FOREX CENTRAL BANK WATCH: ECB Interest Rate Expectations at 14-month Highs Ahead of CPI Data

FOREX CENTRAL BANK WATCH: ECB Interest Rate Expectations at 14-month Highs Ahead of CPI Data

2011-02-28 00:14:00
DailyFX Research,
Share:

Central Bank

Current

Interest Rate

Next Policy

Decision Expectation

Market Conviction*

1-yr Exp**

Federal Reserve

0.00% - 0.25%

No change on 03/15

High

+25bps

European Central Bank

1.00%

No change on 03/03

High

+95bps

Bank of England

0.50%

No change on 03/10

Medium

+75bps

Swiss National Bank

0.25%

No change on 03/17

High

+34bps

Reserve Bank of Australia

4.75%

No change on 03/01

High

+27bps

Bank of Canada

1.00%

No change on 03/01

High

+79bps

Reserve Bank of

New Zealand

3.00%

25bp cut on 03/09

High

-8bps

Bank of Japan

0.10%

No change on 03/15

High

+3bps

*Market Conviction is based on Overnight Index Swaps. A higher level of conviction implies a greater likelihood that the next policy decision expectation is accurate.

**Represents the number of basis points interest rates are expected to rise or fall over the next year.

Daily Update: There is stark contrast in current interest rate expectations, with markets extremely hawkish on ECB monetary policy and just as bearish on RBNZ policy. Ahead of today’s key Euro-Zone CPI figures, ECB expectations stand at their highest level in 14 months. Meanwhile, markets have high conviction that the RBNZ will cut rates in response to the recent earthquake that killed over 100 people in Christchurch.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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