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FOREX CENTRAL BANK WATCH: BoC Interest Rate Expectations Rise Ahead of CPI

FOREX CENTRAL BANK WATCH: BoC Interest Rate Expectations Rise Ahead of CPI

2011-02-18 01:28:00
DailyFX Research,
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Central Bank

Current

Interest Rate

Next Policy

Decision Expectation

Market Conviction*

1-yr Exp**

Federal Reserve

0.00% - 0.25%

No change on 03/15

High

+42bps

European Central Bank

1.00%

No change on 03/03

High

+79bps

Bank of England

0.50%

No change on 03/10

Medium

+76bps

Swiss National Bank

0.25%

No change on 03/17

High

+28bps

Reserve Bank of Australia

4.75%

No change on 03/01

High

+35bps

Bank of Canada

1.00%

No change on 03/01

High

+90bps

Reserve Bank of

New Zealand

3.00%

No change on 03/09

High

+48bps

Bank of Japan

0.10%

No change on 03/15

High

+3bps

*Market Conviction is based on Overnight Index Swaps. A higher level of conviction implies a greater likelihood that the next policy decision expectation is accurate.

**Represents the number of basis points interest rates are expected to rise or fall over the next year.

Daily Update: Interest rate expectations fell several basis points for most of the central banks, with exception of the BOC, where they rose to a new 7-month high near 90 basis points ahead of today’s Consumer Price Index release. CPI is expected to have risen 0.3% month-over-month (2.4% YoY) in January, after remaining unchanged from November to December.

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