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FOREX CENTRAL BANK WATCH: Interest Rate Expectations are Mixed after BOE Rate Decision

FOREX CENTRAL BANK WATCH: Interest Rate Expectations are Mixed after BOE Rate Decision

2011-02-11 00:09:00
DailyFX Research,
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Central Bank

Current

Interest Rate

Next Policy

Decision Expectation

Market Conviction*

1-yr Exp**

Federal Reserve

0.00% - 0.25%

No change on 03/15

High

+37bps

European Central Bank

1.00%

No change on 03/03

High

+87bps

Bank of England

0.50%

No change on 03/10

High

+85bps

Swiss National Bank

0.25%

No change on 03/17

High

+28bps

Reserve Bank of Australia

4.75%

No change on 03/01

High

+38bps

Bank of Canada

1.00%

No change on 03/01

High

+83bps

Reserve Bank of

New Zealand

3.00%

No change on 03/09

High

+53bps

Bank of Japan

0.10%

No change on 02/15

High

+2bps

*Market Conviction is based on Overnight Index Swaps. A higher level of conviction implies a greater likelihood that the next policy decision expectation is accurate.

**Represents the number of basis points interest rates are expected to rise or fall over the next year.

Daily Update: Interest rate expectations were mixed. The BOE left monetary policy unchanged, but interest rate expectations rose anyway, reaching a 13-month high. Traders obviously believe that rate hikes will start soon.

RBA interest rate expectations ticked slightly lower after yesterday’s neutral employment data. ECB expectations bounced a bit and are just shy of a 12-month high.

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