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FOREX CENTRAL BANK WATCH: Markets Expect Two Rate Hikes from RBA in the Next Year

FOREX CENTRAL BANK WATCH: Markets Expect Two Rate Hikes from RBA in the Next Year

2011-02-09 02:18:00
DailyFX Research,
Share:

Central Bank

Current

Interest Rate

Next Policy

Decision Expectation

Market Conviction*

1-yr Exp**

Federal Reserve

0.00% - 0.25%

No change on 03/15

High

+36bps

European Central Bank

1.00%

No change on 03/03

High

+83bps

Bank of England

0.50%

No change on 02/10

High

+76bps

Swiss National Bank

0.25%

No change on 03/17

High

+25bps

Reserve Bank of Australia

4.75%

No change on 03/01

High

+48bps

Bank of Canada

1.00%

No change on 03/01

High

+83bps

Reserve Bank of

New Zealand

3.00%

No change on 03/09

High

+56bps

Bank of Japan

0.10%

No change on 02/15

High

+4bps

*Market Conviction is based on Overnight Index Swaps. A higher level of conviction implies a greater likelihood that the next policy decision expectation is accurate.

**Represents the number of basis points interest rates are expected to rise or fall over the next year.

Daily Update: Interest rate expectations were mixed, with those for the ECB and BOE falling back slightly from 1-year highs, while those for the RBA and RBNZ crept higher. RBA expectations, in particular, have rebounded nicely as commodities reach records and comments from various central bank officials indicate that monetary policy will look through the short-term effects of the Queensland floods.

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