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FOREX CENTRAL BANK WATCH: Interest Rate Expectations Reach New Highs

FOREX CENTRAL BANK WATCH: Interest Rate Expectations Reach New Highs

2011-02-04 02:46:00
DailyFX Research,
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Central Bank

Current

Interest Rate

Next Policy

Decision Expectation

Market Conviction*

1-yr Exp**

Federal Reserve

0.00% - 0.25%

No change on 03/15

High

+34bps

European Central Bank

1.00%

No change on 03/03

High

+90bps

Bank of England

0.50%

No change on 02/10

High

+83bps

Swiss National Bank

0.25%

No change on 03/17

High

+27bps

Reserve Bank of Australia

4.75%

No change on 03/01

High

+45bps

Bank of Canada

1.00%

No change on 03/01

High

+83bps

Reserve Bank of

New Zealand

3.00%

No change on 03/09

High

+52bps

Bank of Japan

0.10%

No change on 02/15

High

+3bps

*Market Conviction is based on Overnight Index Swaps. A higher level of conviction implies a greater likelihood that the next policy decision expectation is accurate.

**Represents the number of basis points interest rates are expected to rise or fall over the next year.

Daily Update: Interest rate expectations continued to move higher despite a lack of notable news. Even Fed expectations are up at seven-month highs, while both ECB and BOE expectations are at 1-year highs. Keep in mind, however, that these are merely expectations. One year ago, markets were pricing in a similar amount of rate hikes from the ECB and BOE, but those expectations turned out to be way off the mark.

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