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FOREX CENTRAL BANK WATCH: ECB Interest Rate Expectations Fall Back after Policy Decision

FOREX CENTRAL BANK WATCH: ECB Interest Rate Expectations Fall Back after Policy Decision

2011-02-04 02:01:00
DailyFX Research,
Share:

Central Bank

Current

Interest Rate

Next Policy

Decision Expectation

Market Conviction*

1-yr Exp**

Federal Reserve

0.00% - 0.25%

No change on 03/15

High

+28bps

European Central Bank

1.00%

No change on 03/03

High

+80bps

Bank of England

0.50%

No change on 02/10

High

+74bps

Swiss National Bank

0.25%

No change on 03/17

High

+27bps

Reserve Bank of Australia

4.75%

No change on 03/01

High

+36bps

Bank of Canada

1.00%

No change on 03/01

High

+61bps

Reserve Bank of

New Zealand

3.00%

No change on 03/09

High

+53bps

Bank of Japan

0.10%

No change on 02/15

High

+4bps

*Market Conviction is based on Overnight Index Swaps. A higher level of conviction implies a greater likelihood that the next policy decision expectation is accurate.

**Represents the number of basis points interest rates are expected to rise or fall over the next year.

Daily Update: Interest rate expectations for the ECB fell back a bit after the latest monetary policy decision from the ECB. Markets were disappointed that central bank President Trichet did not hint at any imminent rate hikes despite the recent move higher in headline CPI. Nevertheless, at 80bps, rate hike expectations remain near recent highs.

Meanwhile, RBA interest rate expectations pushed higher after a surprisingly bullish Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement from the central bank was released.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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