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U.K. Manufacturing Tumbles for the First Time in Five Months

U.K. Manufacturing Tumbles for the First Time in Five Months

2010-03-10 12:50:00
Michael Wright, Currency Analyst
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Overview
Manufacturing in the U.K. unexpectedly declined for the first time in five months, with the reading pushing 0.9% lower in January after rising 0.9% the month prior, while economists forecasted a rise of 0.2%. At the same time, the annualized reading rose 0.2% during the same period, missing expectations of 1.4%, a sign that manufacturing is struggling to shake off the nation’s longest recession on record, the Office for National Statistics in London said today. Meanwhile, industrial production, which includes utilities, mining and quarrying, shed 0.4% in January amid expectations for a 0.3% rise, with the reading losing 1.5% from a year ago, and Prime Minister Gordon publicized that U.K.’s economy is still “fragile” and in its early stages of recovery. However, fears of a protracted recovery may continue to weigh on the manufacturing in addition to the exchange rate during the week as policy makers see an ongoing weakening in the private-sector.

Market Reaction
Looking at the minute chart, the British Pound tumbled against the greenback immediately following the dismal data, reaching a low of 1.4890.

Minute Chart
GBP/USD
Charts prepared by Michael Wright, Daily FX Research


Forecast

Looking ahead, investors are weighing in a zero percent chance that the Bank of England will raise interest rates twenty five basis points at its next rate decision meeting on April 8th, according to the Credit Suisse overnight index swaps. Previously, on March 8th, policy maker Kate Barker stated that the U.K. faces a “bumpy” recovery and manufactures haven’t yet benefited from the drop in the pound. From a technical standpoint, we may see the GBP/USD continue to retrace the advance from last year as policy makers continue to hold a cautious outlook for the economy.


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Written by Michael Wright, DailyFx Research
Questions? Comments? Email me at instructor@dailyfx.com

 

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