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US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD, USD/JPY Look to PMI Data & Yields

US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD, USD/JPY Look to PMI Data & Yields

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

US DOLLAR PRICE OUTLOOK: EUR/USD, USD/JPY AWAIT PMI SURVEYS DUE

US Dollar bears drove the broader DXY Index -0.5% lower on Thursday. This followed a drop in Treasury yields that completely unwound yesterday’s rise sparked by FOMC minutes, which hinted at the threat of Fed tapering. Broad US Dollar weakness sent EUR/USD ripping 50-pips higher to test yearly open resistance while USD/JPY tumbled -0.41% on the session. The DXY Index now hovers back at a key area of technical support near the 89.65-price level.

DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (24 DEC 2020 TO 20 MAY 2021)

DXY Index Price Chart US Dollar Forecast

Chart by @RichDvorakFX created using TradingView

US Dollar bulls might look to defend this potential area of buoyancy underpinned by February’s monthly low. The bottom Bollinger Band could also help stymie US Dollar selling pressure. To that end, the DXY Index arguably is starting to look oversold here judging by the relative strength index. US Dollar rebound potential brings the 20-day simple moving average and descending trendline into focus.

Eclipsing last week’s high around 90.80 might open up the door to test the 50-day simple moving average and upper Bollinger Band. On the other hand, another round of US Dollar weakness might steer the DXY Index toward the 89.20-price level where year-to-date lows reside. Taking out that level of technical support may see US Dollar bears set their sights on 2018 swing lows deep into the 88.00-handle. This could confirm the ominous descending triangle chart pattern that appears to be forming on the DXY Index.

USD PRICE OUTLOOK – US DOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITY TRADING RANGES (OVERNIGHT)

USD Price Outlook US Dollar Implied Volatility Trading Ranges EURUSD USDJPY

Looking ahead to Friday’s trading session on the DailyFX Economic Calendar, we see notable event risk posed by the scheduled release of PMI surveys by IHS Markit. Though overnight US Dollar implied volatility readings suggest that major currency pairs are expected to have relatively little movement. EUR/USD overnight implied volatility of 5.5%, for example, ranks in the bottom 25th percentile of measurements taken over the last 12-months.

Likewise, USD/JPY overnight implied volatility of 4.5% is below its 20-day average reading of 5.5% and ranks in the bottom 20th percentile of readings over the last year. If US PMI data emphasizes persistent supply chain disruptions and corresponding price pressures, however, currency volatility could accelerate alongside a sharp spike higher in Treasury yields as markets grow more fearful of inflation and the risk of Fed tapering.

Keep Reading – US Dollar Outlook: USD/JPY Hinges on Treasury Yield Volatility

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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