News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/6GrWzkOouM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/lIUxpfSem3
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/8kBulRFd6l
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/6u52PuzIaY
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/rHDy0XNZjQ
  • (Weekly Outlook) Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Divergence With Wall Street Risks Continuing #AUD $AUDUSD #Fed #Stocks https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2021/06/12/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-AUDUSD-Divergence-With-Wall-Street-Risks-Continuing.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/ryxG0fHmzd
  • The US Dollar steadied against most ASEAN currencies this past week. Key support levels remain in play looking at USD/SGD, USD/THB and USD/PHP. USD/IDR may rise with a new trendline. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/bpr5ZlKIcE https://t.co/0pskmzXZHi
  • EUR/USD has been looking toppy since late May as bearish technical signals played out. But, rising Euro short bets from retail traders hint that the currency may hold its footing. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/fAZijmQVqh https://t.co/pXICvFE007
  • The Japanese Yen may rise as retail investors increase their long exposure in pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Will these pairs turn lower? What are key levels to watch for? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/PqNahX71oF https://t.co/xZzmwrVQcr
  • Natural gas spot prices have been on the rise, recapturing a key trendline, following the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. Where can prices head from here? Find out from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yK48nZD1ag https://t.co/dI2YHqX6qa
US Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Volatility to Rise, Jobs Data Looms

US Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Volatility to Rise, Jobs Data Looms

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

US DOLLAR OUTLOOK: USD/CAD PRICE VOLATILITY IN FOCUS WITH JOBS DATA ON DECK

  • The US Dollar was driven -0.4% lower on Thursday as measured by the broader DXY Index
  • US Dollar selling was most prominent against its Euro, Aussie, and Canadian Dollar peers
  • USD/CAD price action looks ripe for more volatility due to event risk posed by jobs data

US Dollar bears flexed their muscles during Thursday’s trading session and drove the Greenback down to weekly lows. The broader DXY Index dropped -0.4% on the day after failing to surmount the 91.40-price level. I highlighted this big area of technical resistance in my US Dollar forecast published earlier in the week. US Dollar selling pressure was primarily fueled by EUR/USD strength and USD/CAD weakness. AUD/USD had a solid session as well with a gain of 34-pips.

The US Dollar turned lower despite another round of comments from Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan who reiterated how he thinks the Federal Reserve should start tapering discussions sooner rather than later. Markets likely overlooked these headlines seeing that Kaplan is known to be relatively hawkish, and more importantly, a non-voter on Fed policy this year.

DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (24 DEC 2020 TO 06 MAY 2021)

DXY Index Price Chart US Dollar Forecast

Chart by @RichDvorakFX created using TradingView

From a technical perspective, the negatively-sloped 20-day simple moving average seems to be helping steer the US Dollar Index lower. That said, the latest stretch of downside stalled out before making new weekly lows. US Dollar bulls might try to wrestle back control of direction, but technical resistance around the 91.40-price level remains a daunting obstacle. Eclipsing this technical barrier, however, could open up the door to a sharp move toward the 92.00-handle. Though it appears more likely that the broader DXY Index might be headed for technical support posed by the 90.50-price level, which is underpinned by a confluence of April’s swing low, an ascending trendline as well as the bottom Bollinger Band.

USD PRICE OUTLOOK – US DOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITY TRADING RANGES (OVERNIGHT)

USD Price Chart Outlook US Dollar Implied Volatility Trading Ranges USDCAD EURUSD

Looking ahead to Friday’s trading session, we see that the US Dollar could be in store for some more heightened market activity. This is judging by overnight implied volatility readings for major currency pairs, which are generally above their respective 20-day averages. USD/CAD price action looks ripe for volatility in particular. USD/CAD overnight implied volatility of 9.0% compares to its 20-day average reading of 6.3% and ranks in the top 92nd percentile of measurements taken over the last 12-months. Taking a quick gander at the DailyFX Economic Calendar shows that the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar both face high-impact event risk stemming from the release of monthly jobs data. This fundamental catalyst due Friday, 07 May at 13:30 GMT will likely be front and center for USD/CAD traders.

Keep Reading – Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Plunge Marks Fifth Week; NFPs on Tap

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES