News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/H19vRDCpUJ https://t.co/S74APOiQ3y
  • Two of the main Euro-pairs, $EURUSD and $EURGBP, are being driven by very different drivers. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/Vd32Y6HKEr https://t.co/Lgb5z5V1Xa
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/9uPXNvDBS5
  • We ended this past week with another cliffhanger. The $SPX teeters on the edge of a breakdown from the post-pandemic recovery. While we have NFPs and other key data ahead, the markets are likely to remain fixated on yields. My outlook for next week: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/02/27/SP-500-Dollar-Reversal-Hinge-Not-On-NFPs-but-Markets-Risk-Imagination.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/mlNDDyTgex
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/70ZOJ0ZMwF
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/SyroornFf5
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4QhQGQ6 https://t.co/KrMcyZZqO7
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision may spark a bullish reaction in $AUDUSD as the central bank is expected to retain the current course for monetary policy. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/WbcR9ER0qT https://t.co/TynsqCtPQ6
  • Gold has broken below a critical support confluence we’ve been tracking for months now and the risk remains for further losses while below this threshold in the weeks ahead. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/xgN2obaIWR https://t.co/H71ufPNkPg
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/Evr5KgUjVo
US Dollar Outlook: USD/MXN Volatility to Rise as Banxico Looms

US Dollar Outlook: USD/MXN Volatility to Rise as Banxico Looms

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

USD/MXN PRICE OUTLOOK: US DOLLAR DUE FOR WEAKNESS, MEXICAN PESO EYES BANXICO RATE DECISION

Advertisement

The US Dollar traded largely mixed on Wednesday. US Dollar bears made another push early in the session, but as equities started to stumble lower and risk appetite deteriorated, selling pressure subsided across USD price action. This helped the DXY Index recoil slightly higher off two-week lows and maintain a key technical support level underpinned by its 50-day simple moving average. GBP/USD eked out a modest 15-pip gain while AUD/USD dropped 16-pips on balance.

DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (12 OCT 2020 TO 10 FEB 2021)

DXY Index Price Chart US Dollar Technical Forecast

Chart by @RichDvorakFX created using TradingView

US Dollar weakness could linger more broadly, however, in light of recent technical and fundamental developments. Along with a breakdown of the relative strength index, US Dollar downside notched over the last few trading sessions appears to have invalidated the short-term bullish trendline formed by the 06 January and 26 January swing lows.

Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Recommended by Rich Dvorak
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Get My Guide

During his speech at the Economics Club of New York today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also reassured markets that FOMC policy will stay uber-accommodative and look through transient rises in inflation. This likely stands to keep the reflation trade alive and US Dollar under pressure.

USD PRICE OUTLOOK – US DOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITY TRADING RANGES (OVERNIGHT)

USD Price Chart Outlook US Dollar Implied Volatility Trading Ranges GBPUSD AUDUSD USDMXN

US Dollar overnight implied volatility readings bring USD/MXN price action into focus for Thursday’s trading session. USD/MXN overnight implied volatility of 15.6% is the highest reading relative to other top FX peers. This is likely owing to the Banxico interest rate decision scheduled for release at 19:00 GMT. Market consensus is for the central bank of Mexico to cut rates by 25-basis points, but there remains potential for a hawkish hold considering swaps are pricing the odds of a rate cut at about 50%.

Even if Banxico does in fact lower its policy interest rate target to 4.00% from the current 4.25% level, less-dovish forward guidance, perhaps following hotter-than-expected inflation data, could see the Mexican Peso strengthen. On the other hand, in the event of USD/MXN buying pressure materializes, traders might consider fading the move as bearish USD/MXN poses a top trading opportunity for 2021.

Top Trading Opportunities in 2021
Top Trading Opportunities in 2021
Recommended by Rich Dvorak
Get Your Free Top Trading Opportunities Forecast
Get My Guide

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES