News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here:
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out:
  • Australian Dollar plunged for a fifth week but held key downtrend support at the yearly lows. Get your weekly AUD technical forecast from @MBForex here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • Last week’s march higher in EUR/USD may well extend further after Friday’s Eurozone economic statistics that will likely turn the ECB more hawkish on monetary policy. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • Cable is pulling off after a strong run; near-term weakness may be the theme before trying to rally again. Get your weekly GBP technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here:
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here:
US Dollar Price Volatility Report: IMF GDP Outlook & Fed Cut Odds

US Dollar Price Volatility Report: IMF GDP Outlook & Fed Cut Odds

Rich Dvorak, Analyst


  • The US Dollar was able to stage a rebound to start the week as the greenback catches bid at its 50-day simple moving average
  • USD price action stands to swing in response to the latest update on the IMF”s global growth outlook as well as changes to FOMC rate cut bets following last week’s trade talks
  • For comprehensive fundamental and technical insight on the US Dollar, download our free 4Q-2019 Forecasts and Trading Guides

The US Dollar is starting the week on its front foot with the world’s reserve currency attempting to recover recent downside. USD price action has potential to further extend its rebound considering the IMF’s World Economic Outlook update is slated for release early Tuesday. This is due to expectations for the IMF to slash its global GDP growth outlook once again, which could spur demand for safe haven currencies like the US Dollar.

I noted this past July when the most recent IMF World Economic Outlook report was published that the US Dollar could rise in response to sluggish GDP growth estimates. The DXY Index – a popular basket of major US Dollar currency pairs – has climbed well over 1% since then.


US Dollar Index Price Chart Technical Analysis

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

USD price action found buoyancy at its 50-day simple moving average, which I mentioned was a strong possibility in Friday’s US Dollar price volatility report. US Dollar bulls will likely continue to look to this technical indicator to keep the greenback afloat going forward. Below this area, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the US Dollar’s trading range since late June comes into focus.

Conversely, confluent resistance posed by the 23.6% Fib and 20-day simple moving average could stymie a rebound in the US Dollar.

Check out this US Dollar Technical Forecast: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD.


FOMC Interest Rate Cut Expectations Price Chart October 2019

According to the latest overnight swaps pricing, rate traders are expecting a 70.8% probability that the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates later this month. This compares to the 82.2% probability priced in by markets early last week. With the US-China trade war taking a turn for the better following last Friday’s phase 1 trade agreement supposedly reached, the Fed could have more wiggle room to be patient with future monetary policy decisions rather than cut rates aggressively to insure against downside risks. In turn, the US Dollar could be provided with a strong tailwind if Fed rate cut expectations recede further in response to this development.


US Dollar Implied Volatility Trading Ranges

GBPUSD is expected to be the most volatile major US Dollar currency pair during Tuesday’s trading session with an overnight implied volatility of 17.2% with the latest Brexit developments front and center. On balance, overnight US Dollar implied volatility is roughly in line with recent readings judging by 20-day averages and 12-month percentile rankings across the major USD currency pairs. The DailyFX Economic Calendar lists high-impact economic data releases and event risk on deck, which typically serve as fundamental catalysts that spark currency volatility.


US Dollar Risk Reversal

A risk reversal reading above zero indicates that the demand for call option volatility (upside protection) exceeds that of put option volatility (downside protection). For additional insight on market positioning and bullish or bearish biases, traders can turn to the IG Client Sentiment data, which is updated in real-time and covers several currency pairs, commodities, and equity indices.

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.