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Upbeat U.S. Consumer Confidence Survey to Tame EUR/USD Rally

Upbeat U.S. Consumer Confidence Survey to Tame EUR/USD Rally

2018-03-27 10:00:00
David Song, Strategist
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- Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence Survey to Improve for Third Consecutive Month in March. Index Currently Sits at Highest Level Since November 2000.

- EUR/USD Breaks Out of Narrow Range & Initiates Bullish Sequence. Relative Strength Index (RSI) Snaps Bearish Formation.

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Confidence

DailyFX Calendar

Another uptick in the Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence survey may boost the appeal of the U.S. dollar as it encourages the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months.

A further improvement in household sentiment should keep the FOMC on course to further normalize monetary policy in 2018 as ‘the Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate,’ and Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. may continue to strike a hawkish outlook at the next interest rate decision on May 2 as ‘inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to move up in coming months and to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term.

However, a dismal development may produce a bearish reaction in the greenback as it dampens the Fed’s scope to adopt a more aggressive hiking-cycle, with EUR/USD at risk of making a run at the 2018-high (1.2556) as the pair breaks out a narrow range.

Impact that the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey had on EUR/USD during the previous release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

FEB

2018

02/27/2018 15:00:00 GMT

126.5

130.8

-34

-42

February 2018 U.S. Consumer Confidence

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart

The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence survey climbed to 130.8 from a revised 124.3 in January to mark the highest reading since November 2000, with the gauge for future expectations highlighting a similar dynamic as the index increased to 109.7 from 104.0 during the same period.

The greenback gained ground following the above-forecast print, with EUR/USD slipping below the 1.2250 region to close the day at 1.2232. Want more insight? Join DailyFX Currency Strategist Christopher Vecchio LIVEto cover the Consumer Confidence survey.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart
  • EUR/USD appears to be on track to test the 2018-high (1.2556) as the it clears the monthly opening range, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exhibiting a similar dynamic as it breaks out of the bearish formation carried over from the previous month.
  • In turn, another close above the 1.2430 (50% expansion) will keep the 2018-high (1.2556) on the radar, with the next topside hurdle coming in around 1.2640 (61.8% expansion) to 1.2650 (38.2% retracement) followed by the 1.2860 (50% expansion) region.

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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